UEFA Champions League

Ararat-Armenia vs Celje

Kick-off 17:00 · Tue, Aug 4

📊 Our Prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

98% confidence

Ararat-Armenia 62.0% Draw 14.0% Celje 24.0%

Over 2.5 - 98% BTTS - 95%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

High scoring

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 38%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score (GG)

BTTS rate high

90%

Home Team to Score

Ararat-Armenia strong

88%

🤖 AI Match Analysis

Ararat-Armenia has a strong home record, scoring 2 goals per game. Celje has a high BTTS rate, with both teams scoring in their last 2 matches. The pi-ratings differential favors Ararat-Armenia. With a high expected goals rate, this match is likely to see multiple goals. 5 Goals is the strongest pick due to the high scoring potential of both teams.

💡

Top Tip

Over 2

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

Over 2.5 Goals is rated at 98.1% after combining both teams' recent goal output and defensive records.

High scoring

Numbers behind this Over 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5 Goals probability

98.1%

Chance of 3+ total goals

Ararat-Armenia high-scoring games

50%

Recent matches with 3+ goals

Celje high-scoring games

100%

Recent matches with 3+ goals

Bookmaker implied chance

38%

Market does not fully agree

Ararat-Armenia

L W L W

Form 2-0-2 Goals 7:5 Scored/game 1.75 Conceded/game 1.25

Celje

D D

Form 0-2-0 Goals 5:5 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 2.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Ararat-Armenia win62.0%

Draw14.0%

Celje win24.0%

Over 1.5 goals99.7%

Over 2.5 goals98.1%

Over 3.5 goals94.3%

Both teams to score94.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

91.6%

Away Team to Score

91.3%

Away Over 0.5

91.3%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.595.3%

Goal in Both Halves95.3%

Home or Away (12)82.4%

Home or Draw (1X)71.4%

Draw No Bet - Home70.7%

Home Win58.3%

Draw or Away (X2)37.2%

Draw No Bet - Away29.3%

Away Win24.1%

Draw13.1%

Exactly 1 Goal0.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.5%

Over 1.5 Goals95.1%

Over 2.5 Goals93.7%

Over 3.5 Goals90.1%

4+ Goals90.1%

Over 4.5 Goals83.2%

Over 5.5 Goals72.7%

Total Goals Even47.8%

Total Goals Odd47.7%

Under 5.5 Goals27.3%

Under 4.5 Goals16.8%

2-4 Goals11.9%

3-4 Goals10.5%

Under 3.5 Goals9.9%

Under 2.5 Goals6.3%

1-3 Goals5.4%

2-3 Goals5.0%

Under 1.5 Goals4.9%

Under 0.5 Goals4.5%

Exactly 3 Goals3.6%

1-2 Goals1.8%

Exactly 2 Goals1.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.4%

Away Team to Score91.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)90.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)9.8%

Home Clean Sheet4.2%

Home Win to Nil4.2%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil1.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.4%

Away Over 0.591.3%

Home Over 1.589.4%

Home Over 2.578.2%

Home 3+ Goals78.2%

Away Over 1.578.1%

Away Over 2.557.5%

Away 3+ Goals57.5%

Away Exactly 220.6%

Away Exactly 113.2%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Away Exactly 04.2%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)95.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)94.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home94.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)92.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home92.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)91.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)88.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home88.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)86.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away86.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)81.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home81.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)77.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away77.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)71.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home71.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)65.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away65.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)58.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)51.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away51.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)43.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home43.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)37.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away37.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)29.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home29.6%

Home to win by 3+29.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)24.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)17.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home17.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.6%

Home to win by 114.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.1%

Home to win by 214.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)14.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away14.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw10.1%

Away to win by 110.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)9.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home9.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw8.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)7.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away7.2%

Away to win by 3+7.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.8%

Away to win by 26.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw5.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)3.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home3.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.9%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.4%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.589.5%

Home & Over 2.557.6%

Home & BTTS54.1%

Away & Over 2.523.7%

Away & BTTS23.1%

Draw & BTTS13.0%

Draw & Over 2.512.3%

Home & No BTTS4.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.54.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.51.2%

Away & No BTTS1.1%

Home & Under 2.50.7%

Draw & Under 2.50.7%

BTTS & Under 2.50.7%

Away & Under 2.50.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.596.7%

HT Over 1.585.6%

HT Both Teams Score65.5%

2nd Half More Goals53.5%

HT Home Win51.9%

HT/FT Home/Home43.6%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Away Win26.6%

HT Draw21.5%

HT/FT Away/Away15.2%

HT Under 1.514.4%

Equal Goals Each Half14.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.7%

HT/FT Away/Home6.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Away3.7%

HT Under 0.53.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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