UEFA Europa League

Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha

Kick-off 17:45 · Wed, Sep 16

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

90% confidence

Ararat-Armenia 90.1% Draw 7.5% Sparta Praha 2.4%

Over 2.5 - 80% BTTS - 44%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

93%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

90%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 11.5%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.5%

Exact-score model probability

Ararat-Armenia

W D L W L W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 7:6 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1

Sparta Praha

L W

Form 1-0-1 Goals 2:4 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2

📈 Probability Breakdown

Ararat-Armenia win90.1%

Draw7.5%

Sparta Praha win2.4%

Over 1.5 goals93.0%

Over 2.5 goals79.7%

Over 3.5 goals61.4%

Both teams to score44.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

91.4%

Home Win

89.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)

89.3%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home97.0%

Home or Draw (1X)95.9%

Home or Away (12)92.1%

Home Win89.3%

Both Halves Over 0.577.3%

Goal in Both Halves77.3%

Draw or Away (X2)9.3%

Draw6.6%

Exactly 1 Goal5.9%

Draw No Bet - Away3.0%

Away Win2.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.3%

Over 1.5 Goals91.4%

Over 2.5 Goals78.7%

Under 5.5 Goals75.3%

Over 3.5 Goals60.6%

4+ Goals60.6%

Under 4.5 Goals58.8%

2-4 Goals50.1%

Total Goals Even49.4%

Total Goals Odd49.2%

Over 4.5 Goals41.2%

Under 3.5 Goals39.4%

3-4 Goals37.4%

1-3 Goals36.7%

2-3 Goals30.8%

Over 5.5 Goals24.7%

Under 2.5 Goals21.3%

1-2 Goals18.6%

Exactly 3 Goals18.1%

Exactly 2 Goals12.7%

Under 1.5 Goals8.6%

Under 0.5 Goals2.7%

Exactly 0 Goals1.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)56.6%

Home Clean Sheet54.2%

Home Win to Nil52.8%

Away Team to Score44.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)43.4%

Away Clean Sheet2.5%

Away Win to Nil1.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 1.586.9%

Home Over 2.569.8%

Home 3+ Goals69.8%

Away Exactly 054.2%

Away Over 0.544.5%

Away Exactly 132.5%

Home Exactly 217.1%

Away Over 1.512.0%

Away Exactly 29.7%

Home Exactly 19.3%

Home Exactly 02.5%

Away Over 2.52.3%

Away 3+ Goals2.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.7%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home98.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home95.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)89.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)87.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)76.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away76.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)76.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home76.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)60.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away60.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)57.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home57.6%

Home to win by 3+57.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)41.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away41.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)38.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home38.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)22.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away22.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)22.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home22.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw19.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.5%

Home to win by 218.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw16.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw13.2%

Home to win by 113.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw11.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)10.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home10.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)9.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away9.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw2.2%

Away to win by 12.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.5%

Away to win by 20.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.1%

Away to win by 3+0.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.574.9%

Home & No BTTS52.8%

BTTS & Over 2.540.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.538.4%

Home & BTTS36.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.516.9%

Home & Under 2.514.5%

Draw & BTTS5.2%

Draw & Under 2.54.4%

BTTS & Under 2.53.1%

Draw & Over 2.52.2%

Away & Over 2.51.7%

Away & BTTS1.6%

Away & Under 2.51.1%

Away & No BTTS1.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.4%

HT Home Win72.6%

HT/FT Home/Home70.9%

HT Over 1.557.4%

2nd Half More Goals48.1%

HT Under 1.542.6%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw21.9%

Equal Goals Each Half19.6%

HT Both Teams Score19.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.0%

HT Under 0.514.6%

HT Away Win5.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.7%

HT/FT Away/Home2.7%

HT/FT Away/Away1.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.1%

HT/FT Home/Away0.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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