Germany · 2. Bundesliga

Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli

Kick-off 17:30 · Fri, Sep 4

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

82% confidence

Arminia Bielefeld 81.9% Draw 10.7% FC St. Pauli 7.4%

Over 2.5 - 89% BTTS - 71%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

89%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

82%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7.2%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Arminia Bielefeld: 8 points versus 2 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.2%

Exact-score model probability

Arminia Bielefeld

W L W L D D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 12:7 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.17

FC St. Pauli

L D D L L L

Form 0-2-4 Goals 7:12 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 2

📈 Probability Breakdown

Arminia Bielefeld win81.9%

Draw10.7%

FC St. Pauli win7.4%

Over 1.5 goals96.7%

Over 2.5 goals88.5%

Over 3.5 goals75.0%

Both teams to score70.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Draw No Bet - Home

91.3%

Home or Draw (1X)

90.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

90.6%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home91.3%

Home or Draw (1X)90.6%

Home or Away (12)88.5%

Both Halves Over 0.584.8%

Goal in Both Halves84.8%

Home Win80.8%

Draw or Away (X2)17.4%

Draw9.7%

Draw No Bet - Away8.7%

Away Win7.7%

Exactly 1 Goal3.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.7%

Over 1.5 Goals94.6%

Over 2.5 Goals86.9%

Over 3.5 Goals73.6%

4+ Goals73.6%

Under 5.5 Goals60.9%

Over 4.5 Goals56.6%

Total Goals Even49.2%

Total Goals Odd49.1%

Under 4.5 Goals43.4%

Over 5.5 Goals39.1%

2-4 Goals38.0%

3-4 Goals30.3%

Under 3.5 Goals26.4%

1-3 Goals24.0%

2-3 Goals21.0%

Exactly 3 Goals13.3%

Under 2.5 Goals13.1%

1-2 Goals10.7%

Exactly 2 Goals7.7%

Under 1.5 Goals5.4%

Under 0.5 Goals2.3%

Exactly 0 Goals0.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.1%

Away Team to Score70.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)69.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)30.7%

Home Clean Sheet27.4%

Home Win to Nil26.8%

Away Clean Sheet2.1%

Away Win to Nil1.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 1.588.0%

Home Over 2.572.4%

Home 3+ Goals72.4%

Away Over 0.570.8%

Away Over 1.535.8%

Away Exactly 135.0%

Away Exactly 027.4%

Away Exactly 222.3%

Home Exactly 215.7%

Away Over 2.513.5%

Away 3+ Goals13.5%

Home Exactly 18.1%

Home Exactly 02.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.2%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)90.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home90.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)89.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)80.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)80.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away80.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)67.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away67.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)66.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home66.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)50.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away50.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)48.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home48.2%

Home to win by 3+48.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)32.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away32.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)31.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home31.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.8%

Home to win by 217.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)17.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home17.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)17.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away17.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.9%

Home to win by 114.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw13.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw9.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)8.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home8.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)7.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw4.9%

Away to win by 14.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.9%

Away to win by 21.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.8%

Away to win by 3+0.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.574.2%

BTTS & Over 2.566.4%

Home & BTTS54.0%

Home & No BTTS26.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.520.5%

Draw & BTTS9.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.58.4%

Home & Under 2.56.6%

Away & Over 2.56.4%

Draw & Over 2.56.2%

Away & BTTS6.2%

Draw & Under 2.53.5%

BTTS & Under 2.52.9%

Away & No BTTS1.5%

Away & Under 2.51.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.1%

HT Over 1.567.2%

HT Home Win65.7%

HT/FT Home/Home62.0%

2nd Half More Goals49.9%

HT Both Teams Score36.0%

HT Under 1.532.8%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw22.5%

Equal Goals Each Half17.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.8%

HT Away Win11.7%

HT Under 0.59.9%

HT/FT Away/Home4.7%

HT/FT Away/Away4.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.5%

HT/FT Home/Away0.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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