Portugal · Primeira Liga

Arouca vs Estrela

Kick-off 20:30 · Sun, Oct 11

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

55% confidence

Arouca 54.7% Draw 22.1% Estrela 23.1%

Over 2.5 - 59% BTTS - 89%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

81%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

78%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 6.3%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Arouca: 8 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.3%

Exact-score model probability

Arouca

D L D W L W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 9:7 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.17

Estrela

L D W D D D

Form 1-4-1 Goals 11:12 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 2

Head to head · last 5

Arouca 2wins ·1 draws ·Estrela 2wins

Arouca 1-0 EstrelaApr 19, 2026

Arouca 1-3 EstrelaDec 7, 2025

Arouca 1-0 EstrelaApr 19, 2025

Arouca 1-2 EstrelaDec 9, 2024

Arouca 0-0 EstrelaMay 5, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Arouca win54.7%

Draw22.1%

Estrela win23.1%

Over 1.5 goals81.0%

Over 2.5 goals59.2%

Over 3.5 goals36.8%

Both teams to score89.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

90.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

90.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

90.5%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.585.6%

Goal in Both Halves85.6%

Home or Away (12)84.6%

Home or Draw (1X)80.9%

Draw No Bet - Home78.4%

Home Win66.3%

Draw or Away (X2)32.9%

Draw No Bet - Away21.6%

Away Win18.3%

Draw14.6%

Exactly 1 Goal2.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.6%

Over 1.5 Goals95.9%

Over 2.5 Goals88.7%

Over 3.5 Goals76.1%

4+ Goals76.1%

Over 4.5 Goals59.5%

Under 5.5 Goals57.9%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Over 5.5 Goals42.1%

Under 4.5 Goals40.5%

2-4 Goals36.4%

3-4 Goals29.2%

Under 3.5 Goals23.9%

1-3 Goals22.5%

2-3 Goals19.8%

Exactly 3 Goals12.6%

Under 2.5 Goals11.3%

1-2 Goals9.9%

Exactly 2 Goals7.2%

Under 1.5 Goals4.1%

Under 0.5 Goals1.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.8%

Away Team to Score83.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)81.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)19.0%

Home Clean Sheet15.3%

Home Win to Nil14.8%

Away Clean Sheet3.4%

Away Win to Nil2.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.8%

Home Over 1.584.4%

Away Over 0.583.8%

Home Over 2.565.0%

Home 3+ Goals65.0%

Away Over 1.555.2%

Away Exactly 128.6%

Away Over 2.528.5%

Away 3+ Goals28.5%

Away Exactly 226.7%

Home Exactly 219.4%

Away Exactly 015.3%

Home Exactly 111.4%

Home Exactly 03.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)95.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)90.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home90.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)90.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away90.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)81.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away81.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)80.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home80.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)67.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away67.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)66.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)50.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away50.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)48.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home48.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)32.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away32.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)31.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home31.6%

Home to win by 3+31.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)18.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)18.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home18.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.6%

Home to win by 117.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.1%

Home to win by 217.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw13.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw9.7%

Away to win by 19.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw9.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)8.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home8.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)8.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away8.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw5.2%

Away to win by 25.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)3.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home3.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.5%

Away to win by 3+3.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.577.7%

Home & Over 2.561.5%

Home & BTTS51.5%

Away & Over 2.516.4%

Away & BTTS15.5%

Home & No BTTS14.8%

Draw & BTTS14.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.0%

Draw & Over 2.510.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.57.2%

Home & Under 2.54.8%

Draw & Under 2.53.8%

BTTS & Under 2.53.3%

Away & No BTTS2.8%

Away & Under 2.51.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.6%

HT Over 1.568.4%

HT Home Win53.5%

2nd Half More Goals50.1%

HT/FT Home/Home46.8%

HT Both Teams Score44.5%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.531.6%

HT Draw25.9%

HT Away Win20.7%

Equal Goals Each Half17.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.7%

HT/FT Away/Away10.8%

HT Under 0.59.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.8%

HT/FT Away/Home5.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Home/Away2.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions