Portugal · Primeira Liga

Arouca vs Maritimo

Kick-off 15:30 · Sat, Aug 29

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

44% confidence

Arouca 44.2% Draw 23.7% Maritimo 32.1%

Over 2.5 - 54% BTTS - 74%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

77%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

76%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7.6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Arouca: 13 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.6%

Exact-score model probability

Arouca

L W W W W D

Form 4-1-1 Goals 13:6 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1

Maritimo

D W W W L L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 9:9 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 4

Arouca 1wins ·2 draws ·Maritimo 1wins

Arouca 1-0 MaritimoApr 8, 2023

Arouca 1-1 MaritimoOct 23, 2022

Arouca 0-3 MaritimoFeb 14, 2022

Arouca 2-2 MaritimoSep 13, 2021

📈 Probability Breakdown

Arouca win44.2%

Draw23.7%

Maritimo win32.1%

Over 1.5 goals76.7%

Over 2.5 goals53.7%

Over 3.5 goals31.4%

Both teams to score73.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

89.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

89.0%

HT Over 0.5

87.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)86.4%

Home or Away (12)85.8%

Draw No Bet - Home84.9%

Both Halves Over 0.581.2%

Goal in Both Halves81.2%

Home Win72.9%

Draw or Away (X2)26.5%

Draw No Bet - Away15.1%

Draw13.5%

Away Win12.9%

Exactly 1 Goal4.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.4%

Over 1.5 Goals94.1%

Over 2.5 Goals84.0%

Over 3.5 Goals68.2%

4+ Goals68.2%

Under 5.5 Goals67.7%

Under 4.5 Goals50.3%

Over 4.5 Goals49.7%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Total Goals Even49.7%

2-4 Goals44.4%

3-4 Goals34.3%

Over 5.5 Goals32.3%

Under 3.5 Goals31.8%

1-3 Goals30.2%

2-3 Goals25.9%

Under 2.5 Goals16.0%

Exactly 3 Goals15.8%

1-2 Goals14.4%

Exactly 2 Goals10.1%

Under 1.5 Goals5.9%

Under 0.5 Goals1.6%

Exactly 0 Goals0.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.6%

Away Team to Score75.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)72.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)27.7%

Home Clean Sheet24.2%

Home Win to Nil23.3%

Away Clean Sheet3.8%

Away Win to Nil2.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.6%

Home Over 1.583.2%

Away Over 0.575.2%

Home Over 2.562.9%

Home 3+ Goals62.9%

Away Over 1.541.0%

Away Exactly 134.2%

Away Exactly 024.2%

Away Exactly 224.1%

Home Exactly 220.3%

Away Over 2.516.9%

Away 3+ Goals16.9%

Home Exactly 112.4%

Home Exactly 03.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)94.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)89.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away89.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)86.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home86.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)78.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away78.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)72.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)63.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away63.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)54.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home54.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)44.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away44.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)36.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home36.2%

Home to win by 3+36.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)26.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away26.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)20.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home20.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.6%

Home to win by 218.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.0%

Home to win by 118.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)12.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw10.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)10.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home10.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw7.8%

Away to win by 17.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.5%

Away to win by 23.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.7%

Away to win by 3+1.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.568.0%

Home & Over 2.564.9%

Home & BTTS49.6%

Home & No BTTS23.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.516.0%

Draw & BTTS12.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.511.1%

Away & Over 2.510.7%

Away & BTTS10.1%

Draw & Over 2.58.3%

Home & Under 2.58.0%

Draw & Under 2.55.2%

BTTS & Under 2.54.3%

Away & No BTTS2.9%

Away & Under 2.52.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.587.9%

HT Over 1.562.3%

HT Home Win57.5%

HT/FT Home/Home52.3%

2nd Half More Goals49.0%

HT Under 1.537.7%

HT Both Teams Score36.3%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw26.5%

Equal Goals Each Half18.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.3%

HT Away Win16.0%

HT Under 0.512.1%

HT/FT Away/Away7.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.0%

HT/FT Away/Home4.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Home/Away1.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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