Portugal · Primeira Liga

Arouca vs Moreirense

Kick-off 18:00 · Sun, Aug 16

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

49% confidence

Arouca 48.9% Draw 23.8% Moreirense 27.3%

Over 2.5 - 53% BTTS - 53%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 9%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Arouca: 13 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Arouca

W W W D L W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 11:6 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1

Moreirense

D D L W L W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 7:10 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 5

Arouca 2wins ·0 draws ·Moreirense 3wins

Arouca 1-0 MoreirenseMar 21, 2026

Arouca 0-2 MoreirenseNov 2, 2025

Arouca 1-0 MoreirenseJan 24, 2025

Arouca 1-3 MoreirenseAug 18, 2024

Arouca 0-1 MoreirenseMar 17, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Arouca win48.9%

Draw23.8%

Moreirense win27.3%

Over 1.5 goals76.1%

Over 2.5 goals52.5%

Over 3.5 goals30.2%

Both teams to score53.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

91.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

91.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

91.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)91.9%

Draw No Bet - Home91.2%

Home or Away (12)87.6%

Home Win80.0%

Both Halves Over 0.574.3%

Goal in Both Halves74.3%

Draw or Away (X2)19.6%

Draw11.9%

Draw No Bet - Away8.8%

Away Win7.7%

Exactly 1 Goal7.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.7%

Over 1.5 Goals90.4%

Under 5.5 Goals78.8%

Over 2.5 Goals75.9%

Under 4.5 Goals63.2%

Over 3.5 Goals56.4%

4+ Goals56.4%

2-4 Goals53.6%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Under 3.5 Goals43.6%

1-3 Goals41.3%

3-4 Goals39.0%

Over 4.5 Goals36.8%

2-3 Goals34.1%

Under 2.5 Goals24.1%

1-2 Goals21.9%

Over 5.5 Goals21.2%

Exactly 3 Goals19.5%

Exactly 2 Goals14.6%

Under 1.5 Goals9.6%

Under 0.5 Goals2.3%

Exactly 0 Goals1.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.0%

Away Team to Score59.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)56.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)43.2%

Home Clean Sheet40.1%

Home Win to Nil38.3%

Away Clean Sheet4.5%

Away Win to Nil2.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.0%

Home Over 1.581.1%

Away Over 0.559.5%

Home Over 2.559.4%

Home 3+ Goals59.4%

Away Exactly 040.1%

Away Exactly 136.5%

Away Over 1.523.0%

Home Exactly 221.6%

Away Exactly 216.6%

Home Exactly 114.0%

Away Over 2.56.4%

Away 3+ Goals6.4%

Home Exactly 04.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)94.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)91.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home91.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)87.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away87.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)80.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)75.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away75.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)61.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home61.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)58.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away58.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)41.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home41.3%

Home to win by 3+41.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)37.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away37.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)23.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home23.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw20.4%

Home to win by 220.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)19.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away19.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.3%

Home to win by 118.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw12.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)11.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home11.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)7.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.4%

Away to win by 15.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)5.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home5.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.8%

Away to win by 21.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.5%

Away to win by 3+0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.565.6%

BTTS & Over 2.551.7%

Home & BTTS41.7%

Home & No BTTS38.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.524.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.518.5%

Home & Under 2.514.3%

Draw & BTTS10.1%

Draw & Under 2.56.9%

Away & Over 2.55.3%

BTTS & Under 2.55.1%

Draw & Over 2.55.0%

Away & BTTS5.0%

Away & No BTTS2.7%

Away & Under 2.52.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.583.5%

HT Home Win62.0%

HT/FT Home/Home58.4%

HT Over 1.553.8%

2nd Half More Goals47.5%

HT Under 1.546.2%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw27.3%

HT Both Teams Score25.3%

Equal Goals Each Half20.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.3%

HT Under 0.516.5%

HT Away Win10.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.2%

HT/FT Away/Away4.1%

HT/FT Away/Home3.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.8%

HT/FT Home/Away0.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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