Portugal · Primeira Liga

Arouca vs Santa Clara

Kick-off 18:00 · Sun, Sep 13

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

41% confidence

Arouca 40.8% Draw 26.0% Santa Clara 33.2%

Over 2.5 - 44% BTTS - 52%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

85%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 13.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Arouca: 13 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

13.4%

Exact-score model probability

Arouca

D W L W W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 10:4 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 0.67

Santa Clara

W D W W D L

Form 3-2-1 Goals 9:4 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.67

Head to head · last 5

Arouca 2wins ·2 draws ·Santa Clara 1wins

Arouca 2-2 Santa ClaraMay 2, 2026

Arouca 0-0 Santa ClaraDec 21, 2025

Arouca 0-2 Santa ClaraApr 26, 2025

Arouca 1-0 Santa ClaraDec 15, 2024

Arouca 1-0 Santa ClaraFeb 11, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Arouca win40.8%

Draw26.0%

Santa Clara win33.2%

Over 1.5 goals69.1%

Over 2.5 goals43.8%

Over 3.5 goals22.7%

Both teams to score52.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 0.5 Goals

91.4%

Under 4.5 Goals

89.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

88.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)78.6%

Home or Away (12)74.6%

Draw No Bet - Home71.3%

Home Win53.2%

Both Halves Over 0.549.6%

Goal in Both Halves49.6%

Draw or Away (X2)46.8%

Draw No Bet - Away28.7%

Draw25.4%

Away Win21.4%

Exactly 1 Goal21.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals96.1%

Over 0.5 Goals91.4%

Under 4.5 Goals89.7%

Under 3.5 Goals76.6%

Over 1.5 Goals70.4%

1-3 Goals68.1%

2-4 Goals60.1%

Under 2.5 Goals55.4%

Total Goals Even50.4%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

2-3 Goals47.0%

1-2 Goals46.9%

Over 2.5 Goals44.6%

3-4 Goals34.2%

Under 1.5 Goals29.6%

Exactly 2 Goals25.9%

Over 3.5 Goals23.4%

4+ Goals23.4%

Exactly 3 Goals21.2%

Over 4.5 Goals10.3%

Under 0.5 Goals8.6%

Exactly 0 Goals8.6%

Over 5.5 Goals3.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score79.1%

Away Team to Score59.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)53.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)46.7%

Home Clean Sheet41.0%

Home Win to Nil32.4%

Away Clean Sheet20.9%

Away Win to Nil12.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.579.1%

Away Over 0.559.0%

Home Over 1.546.4%

Away Exactly 041.0%

Away Exactly 136.6%

Home Exactly 132.7%

Home Exactly 225.6%

Away Over 1.522.5%

Home Exactly 020.9%

Home Over 2.520.8%

Home 3+ Goals20.8%

Away Exactly 216.3%

Away Over 2.56.2%

Away 3+ Goals6.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)88.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away88.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)78.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home78.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)72.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away72.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)53.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)46.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away46.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)28.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home28.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw25.2%

Home to win by 125.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)21.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.3%

Home to win by 216.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.4%

Away to win by 114.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)11.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home11.6%

Home to win by 3+11.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.3%

Away to win by 25.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.8%

Away to win by 3+1.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.543.5%

BTTS & Over 2.534.7%

Home & No BTTS32.4%

Home & Over 2.529.3%

Home & Under 2.523.9%

Home & BTTS20.8%

Draw & Under 2.520.5%

Draw & BTTS16.8%

Away & No BTTS12.3%

BTTS & Under 2.512.0%

Away & Under 2.511.0%

Away & Over 2.510.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.8%

Away & BTTS9.1%

Draw & Over 2.54.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.569.7%

HT Over 0.566.9%

HT Draw43.1%

2nd Half More Goals42.4%

HT Home Win38.3%

HT Under 0.533.1%

HT/FT Home/Home32.6%

1st Half More Goals30.6%

HT Over 1.530.3%

Equal Goals Each Half27.0%

HT Away Win18.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.2%

HT Both Teams Score16.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw16.4%

HT/FT Away/Away11.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Away/Home2.4%

HT/FT Home/Away1.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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