England · Premier League

Arsenal vs Chelsea

Kick-off 16:30 · Sun, Sep 6

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

68% confidence

Arsenal 67.7% Draw 20.8% Chelsea 11.5%

Over 2.5 - 76% BTTS - 31%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

79%

No Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

69%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 13.1%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Arsenal: 18 points versus 12 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

13.1%

Exact-score model probability

Arsenal

W W W W W W

Form 6-0-0 Goals 9:1 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.17

Chelsea

W W W L W L

Form 4-0-2 Goals 12:9 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 5

Arsenal 3wins ·2 draws ·Chelsea 0wins

Arsenal 2-1 ChelseaMar 1, 2026

Arsenal 1-1 ChelseaNov 30, 2025

Arsenal 1-0 ChelseaMar 16, 2025

Arsenal 1-1 ChelseaNov 10, 2024

Arsenal 5-0 ChelseaApr 23, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Arsenal win67.7%

Draw20.8%

Chelsea win11.5%

Over 1.5 goals79.0%

Over 2.5 goals76.3%

Over 3.5 goals32.5%

Both teams to score30.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Away (12)

90.2%

Over 1.5 Goals

87.1%

Home Win

86.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)95.8%

Draw No Bet - Home95.8%

Home or Away (12)90.2%

Home Win86.4%

Both Halves Over 0.569.3%

Goal in Both Halves69.3%

Draw or Away (X2)13.1%

Exactly 1 Goal9.8%

Draw9.3%

Draw No Bet - Away4.2%

Away Win3.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.9%

Over 1.5 Goals87.1%

Under 5.5 Goals84.7%

Under 4.5 Goals70.9%

Over 2.5 Goals69.5%

2-4 Goals58.0%

Under 3.5 Goals51.7%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

1-3 Goals48.6%

Over 3.5 Goals48.3%

4+ Goals48.3%

3-4 Goals40.4%

2-3 Goals38.8%

Under 2.5 Goals30.5%

Over 4.5 Goals29.1%

1-2 Goals27.4%

Exactly 3 Goals21.2%

Exactly 2 Goals17.6%

Over 5.5 Goals15.3%

Under 1.5 Goals12.9%

Under 0.5 Goals3.1%

Exactly 0 Goals2.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)60.7%

Home Clean Sheet58.3%

Home Win to Nil55.6%

Away Team to Score41.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)39.3%

Away Clean Sheet4.6%

Away Win to Nil1.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.580.8%

Home Over 2.558.9%

Home 3+ Goals58.9%

Away Exactly 058.3%

Away Over 0.541.2%

Away Exactly 131.2%

Home Exactly 221.8%

Home Exactly 114.2%

Away Over 1.510.1%

Away Exactly 28.3%

Home Exactly 04.6%

Away Over 2.51.7%

Away 3+ Goals1.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home98.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home95.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)93.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)86.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)85.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away85.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)71.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away71.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)69.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home69.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)51.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away51.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)47.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home47.7%

Home to win by 3+47.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)30.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away30.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)28.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home28.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw21.4%

Home to win by 221.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw19.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.3%

Home to win by 117.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)14.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home14.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw13.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)13.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away13.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)6.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home6.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw3.0%

Away to win by 13.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.6%

Away to win by 20.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.1%

Away to win by 3+0.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.565.3%

Home & No BTTS55.6%

BTTS & Over 2.534.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.534.6%

Home & BTTS30.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.525.6%

Home & Under 2.521.1%

Draw & Under 2.57.1%

Draw & BTTS6.6%

BTTS & Under 2.54.4%

Draw & Over 2.52.2%

Away & Over 2.51.9%

Away & BTTS1.9%

Away & No BTTS1.9%

Away & Under 2.51.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.580.3%

HT Home Win66.9%

HT/FT Home/Home64.9%

HT Under 1.551.7%

HT Over 1.548.3%

2nd Half More Goals46.5%

1st Half More Goals31.9%

HT Draw26.8%

Equal Goals Each Half21.6%

HT Under 0.519.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home19.5%

HT Both Teams Score16.0%

HT Away Win6.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.7%

HT/FT Away/Home2.5%

HT/FT Away/Away1.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.6%

HT/FT Home/Away0.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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