England · Premier League

Arsenal vs Everton

Full time · 2:0

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

67% confidence

Arsenal 67.4% Draw 23.3% Everton 9.3%

Over 2.5 - 58% BTTS - 50%

✓ Pick was correct (2:0)

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

81%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

67%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 15.5%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Arsenal: 13 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

15.5%

Exact-score model probability

Arsenal

D W W W L W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 10:6 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1

Everton

L D W D D D

Form 1-4-1 Goals 6:7 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 5

Arsenal 3wins ·2 draws ·Everton 0wins

Arsenal 2-0 EvertonMar 14, 2026

Arsenal 1-0 EvertonDec 20, 2025

Arsenal 1-1 EvertonApr 5, 2025

Arsenal 0-0 EvertonDec 14, 2024

Arsenal 2-1 EvertonMay 19, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Arsenal win67.4%

Draw23.3%

Everton win9.3%

Over 1.5 goals68.1%

Over 2.5 goals58.2%

Over 3.5 goals20.4%

Both teams to score49.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 0.5 Goals

91.7%

Under 4.5 Goals

89.3%

Home or Draw (1X)

88.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)88.2%

Draw No Bet - Home85.1%

Home or Away (12)78.8%

Home Win67.1%

Both Halves Over 0.550.3%

Goal in Both Halves50.3%

Draw or Away (X2)32.9%

Draw21.2%

Exactly 1 Goal20.6%

Draw No Bet - Away14.9%

Away Win11.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals95.9%

Over 0.5 Goals91.7%

Under 4.5 Goals89.3%

Under 3.5 Goals76.0%

Over 1.5 Goals71.1%

1-3 Goals67.7%

2-4 Goals60.3%

Under 2.5 Goals54.7%

Total Goals Even50.3%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

2-3 Goals47.0%

1-2 Goals46.3%

Over 2.5 Goals45.3%

3-4 Goals34.6%

Under 1.5 Goals28.9%

Exactly 2 Goals25.7%

Over 3.5 Goals24.0%

4+ Goals24.0%

Exactly 3 Goals21.3%

Over 4.5 Goals10.7%

Under 0.5 Goals8.3%

Exactly 0 Goals8.3%

Over 5.5 Goals4.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score84.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)60.7%

Home Clean Sheet53.5%

Away Team to Score46.5%

Home Win to Nil45.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)39.3%

Away Clean Sheet15.5%

Away Win to Nil7.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.584.5%

Home Over 1.555.6%

Away Exactly 053.5%

Away Over 0.546.5%

Away Exactly 133.5%

Home Exactly 128.9%

Home Over 2.528.6%

Home 3+ Goals28.6%

Home Exactly 226.9%

Home Exactly 015.5%

Away Over 1.513.1%

Away Exactly 210.5%

Away Over 2.52.6%

Away 3+ Goals2.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)92.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away92.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)88.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home88.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)80.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away80.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)67.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)59.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away59.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)40.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home40.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)32.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away32.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw26.4%

Home to win by 126.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw20.9%

Home to win by 220.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)19.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home19.8%

Home to win by 3+19.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)11.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw8.9%

Away to win by 18.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)7.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home7.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.4%

Away to win by 22.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.5%

Away to win by 3+0.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & No BTTS45.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.545.0%

Home & Over 2.537.2%

Home & Under 2.529.9%

BTTS & Over 2.529.6%

Home & BTTS21.9%

Draw & Under 2.518.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.515.7%

Draw & BTTS12.9%

BTTS & Under 2.59.7%

Away & No BTTS7.2%

Away & Under 2.56.8%

Away & Over 2.54.9%

Away & BTTS4.5%

Draw & Over 2.53.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.569.2%

HT Over 0.567.4%

HT Home Win47.4%

HT/FT Home/Home43.3%

2nd Half More Goals42.5%

HT Draw40.8%

HT Under 0.532.6%

HT Over 1.530.8%

1st Half More Goals30.7%

Equal Goals Each Half26.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home21.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw14.4%

HT Both Teams Score13.9%

HT Away Win11.9%

HT/FT Away/Away6.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Away/Home2.3%

HT/FT Home/Away0.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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