England · Premier League

Arsenal vs Leeds

Kick-off 12:30 · Sat, Oct 10

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

66% confidence

Arsenal 65.7% Draw 23.6% Leeds 10.7%

Over 2.5 - 68% BTTS - 37%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

77%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

66%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 13.7%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Arsenal: 15 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

13.7%

Exact-score model probability

Arsenal

L W W W W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 9:4 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.67

Leeds

D W L D D W

Form 2-3-1 Goals 11:9 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 5

Arsenal 5wins ·0 draws ·Leeds 0wins

Arsenal 4-0 LeedsJan 31, 2026

Arsenal 5-0 LeedsAug 23, 2025

Arsenal 4-1 LeedsApr 1, 2023

Arsenal 1-0 LeedsOct 16, 2022

Arsenal 2-1 LeedsMay 8, 2022

📈 Probability Breakdown

Arsenal win65.7%

Draw23.6%

Leeds win10.7%

Over 1.5 goals71.0%

Over 2.5 goals68.4%

Over 3.5 goals22.9%

Both teams to score36.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Away (12)

91.0%

Home Win

87.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)

87.8%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home96.5%

Home or Draw (1X)96.3%

Home or Away (12)91.0%

Home Win87.8%

Both Halves Over 0.569.6%

Goal in Both Halves69.6%

Draw or Away (X2)11.7%

Exactly 1 Goal9.6%

Draw8.5%

Draw No Bet - Away3.5%

Away Win3.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.8%

Over 1.5 Goals87.3%

Under 5.5 Goals84.4%

Under 4.5 Goals70.5%

Over 2.5 Goals69.9%

2-4 Goals57.7%

Under 3.5 Goals51.3%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Over 3.5 Goals48.7%

4+ Goals48.7%

1-3 Goals48.1%

3-4 Goals40.3%

2-3 Goals38.5%

Under 2.5 Goals30.1%

Over 4.5 Goals29.5%

1-2 Goals27.0%

Exactly 3 Goals21.1%

Exactly 2 Goals17.4%

Over 5.5 Goals15.6%

Under 1.5 Goals12.7%

Under 0.5 Goals3.2%

Exactly 0 Goals2.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)63.3%

Home Clean Sheet61.1%

Home Win to Nil58.5%

Away Team to Score38.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)36.7%

Away Clean Sheet4.3%

Away Win to Nil1.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.2%

Home Over 1.581.7%

Away Exactly 061.1%

Home Over 2.560.4%

Home 3+ Goals60.4%

Away Over 0.538.4%

Away Exactly 129.8%

Home Exactly 221.3%

Home Exactly 113.5%

Away Over 1.58.6%

Away Exactly 27.2%

Home Exactly 04.3%

Away Over 2.51.3%

Away 3+ Goals1.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home98.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)96.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home96.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)92.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)87.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)83.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away83.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)71.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home71.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)69.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away69.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)50.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home50.2%

Home to win by 3+50.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)49.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away49.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)30.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home30.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)28.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away28.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw21.2%

Home to win by 221.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw19.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.5%

Home to win by 116.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)15.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home15.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw14.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)11.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away11.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)7.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home7.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw2.6%

Away to win by 12.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.5%

Away to win by 20.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.1%

Away to win by 3+0.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.566.5%

Home & No BTTS58.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.537.2%

BTTS & Over 2.532.7%

Home & BTTS29.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.525.6%

Home & Under 2.521.4%

Draw & Under 2.56.7%

Draw & BTTS5.9%

BTTS & Under 2.54.0%

Draw & Over 2.51.8%

Away & No BTTS1.7%

Away & Under 2.51.6%

Away & Over 2.51.5%

Away & BTTS1.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.580.5%

HT Home Win68.5%

HT/FT Home/Home66.7%

HT Under 1.551.3%

HT Over 1.548.7%

2nd Half More Goals46.5%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT Draw26.0%

Equal Goals Each Half21.5%

HT Under 0.519.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home19.3%

HT Both Teams Score14.9%

HT Away Win5.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Away/Home2.3%

HT/FT Away/Away1.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.3%

HT/FT Home/Away0.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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