UEFA Champions League

Arsenal vs Lille

Kick-off 20:00 · Tue, Oct 13

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

52% confidence

Arsenal 52.0% Draw 30.9% Lille 17.1%

Over 2.5 - 34% BTTS - 39%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

83%

No Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

61%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 17.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Arsenal: 15 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

17.5%

Exact-score model probability

Arsenal

W L W W W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 8:5 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 0.83

Lille

W L W L W D

Form 3-1-2 Goals 9:7 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Arsenal win52.0%

Draw30.9%

Lille win17.1%

Over 1.5 goals62.7%

Over 2.5 goals34.1%

Over 3.5 goals15.5%

Both teams to score38.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

89.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

89.9%

Over 0.5 Goals

87.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)81.4%

Draw No Bet - Home74.2%

Home or Away (12)72.2%

Home Win53.6%

Draw or Away (X2)46.4%

Both Halves Over 0.541.1%

Goal in Both Halves41.1%

Draw27.8%

Exactly 1 Goal26.2%

Draw No Bet - Away25.8%

Away Win18.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals98.1%

Under 4.5 Goals94.1%

Over 0.5 Goals87.3%

Under 3.5 Goals84.5%

1-3 Goals71.8%

Under 2.5 Goals65.9%

Over 1.5 Goals61.2%

2-4 Goals55.3%

1-2 Goals53.2%

Total Goals Even50.8%

Total Goals Odd49.2%

2-3 Goals45.7%

Under 1.5 Goals38.8%

Over 2.5 Goals34.1%

3-4 Goals28.3%

Exactly 2 Goals27.0%

Exactly 3 Goals18.6%

Over 3.5 Goals15.5%

4+ Goals15.5%

Under 0.5 Goals12.7%

Exactly 0 Goals12.7%

Over 4.5 Goals5.9%

Over 5.5 Goals1.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score74.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)62.8%

Home Clean Sheet50.3%

Away Team to Score49.7%

Home Win to Nil37.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)37.2%

Away Clean Sheet25.2%

Away Win to Nil12.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.574.8%

Away Exactly 050.3%

Away Over 0.549.7%

Home Over 1.540.1%

Home Exactly 134.7%

Away Exactly 134.6%

Home Exactly 025.2%

Home Exactly 224.0%

Home Over 2.516.2%

Home 3+ Goals16.2%

Away Over 1.515.1%

Away Exactly 211.9%

Away Over 2.53.3%

Away 3+ Goals3.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)89.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away89.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)81.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home81.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)73.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away73.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)53.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)46.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away46.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw27.2%

Home to win by 127.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)26.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home26.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)18.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.3%

Home to win by 216.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.5%

Away to win by 113.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)10.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home10.1%

Home to win by 3+10.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.0%

Away to win by 24.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.0%

Away to win by 3+1.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.553.9%

Home & No BTTS37.7%

Home & Under 2.529.5%

BTTS & Over 2.525.2%

Draw & Under 2.524.7%

Home & Over 2.524.1%

Home & BTTS15.9%

Draw & BTTS15.2%

Away & No BTTS12.5%

BTTS & Under 2.512.0%

Away & Under 2.511.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.0%

Away & Over 2.56.9%

Away & BTTS6.1%

Draw & Over 2.53.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.576.1%

HT Over 0.560.6%

HT Draw47.4%

2nd Half More Goals40.3%

HT Under 0.539.4%

HT Home Win37.0%

HT/FT Home/Home32.2%

Equal Goals Each Half30.0%

1st Half More Goals29.7%

HT Over 1.523.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw19.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home19.5%

HT Away Win15.6%

HT Both Teams Score12.3%

HT/FT Away/Away9.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.0%

HT/FT Away/Home1.8%

HT/FT Home/Away0.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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