Italy · Serie A

AS Roma vs Cagliari

Kick-off 20:45 · Tue, Oct 27

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

71% confidence

AS Roma 71.3% Draw 19.1% Cagliari 9.5%

Over 2.5 - 85% BTTS - 74%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

85%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 8.8%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Cagliari: 9 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.16 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.8%

Exact-score model probability

AS Roma

D W W L D D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 14:9 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1.5

Cagliari

L L D W W W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 5:8 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 5

AS Roma 3wins ·1 draws ·Cagliari 1wins

AS Roma 2-0 CagliariFeb 9, 2026

AS Roma 0-1 CagliariDec 7, 2025

AS Roma 1-0 CagliariMar 16, 2025

AS Roma 0-0 CagliariAug 18, 2024

AS Roma 4-0 CagliariFeb 5, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

AS Roma win71.3%

Draw19.1%

Cagliari win9.5%

Over 1.5 goals73.4%

Over 2.5 goals85.3%

Over 3.5 goals26.5%

Both teams to score74.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

91.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

91.8%

Over 1.5 Goals

89.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)88.1%

Draw No Bet - Home86.3%

Home or Away (12)84.9%

Home Win73.3%

Both Halves Over 0.572.5%

Goal in Both Halves72.5%

Draw or Away (X2)26.5%

Draw14.9%

Draw No Bet - Away13.7%

Away Win11.6%

Exactly 1 Goal8.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.6%

Over 1.5 Goals89.5%

Under 5.5 Goals81.0%

Over 2.5 Goals73.8%

Under 4.5 Goals65.9%

2-4 Goals55.4%

Over 3.5 Goals53.5%

4+ Goals53.5%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 3.5 Goals46.5%

1-3 Goals44.1%

3-4 Goals39.7%

2-3 Goals35.9%

Over 4.5 Goals34.1%

Under 2.5 Goals26.2%

1-2 Goals23.9%

Exactly 3 Goals20.2%

Over 5.5 Goals19.0%

Exactly 2 Goals15.7%

Under 1.5 Goals10.5%

Under 0.5 Goals2.4%

Exactly 0 Goals2.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score93.7%

Away Team to Score65.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)61.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)38.9%

Home Clean Sheet34.6%

Home Win to Nil32.5%

Away Clean Sheet6.1%

Away Win to Nil4.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.593.7%

Home Over 1.576.6%

Away Over 0.565.1%

Home Over 2.552.8%

Home 3+ Goals52.8%

Away Exactly 136.6%

Away Exactly 034.6%

Away Over 1.528.5%

Home Exactly 223.9%

Away Exactly 219.4%

Home Exactly 117.0%

Away Over 2.59.1%

Away 3+ Goals9.1%

Home Exactly 06.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)91.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away91.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)88.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home88.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)82.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away82.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)73.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)66.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away66.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)53.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home53.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)46.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away46.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)32.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home32.9%

Home to win by 3+32.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)26.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away26.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw20.2%

Home to win by 120.2%

Home to win by 220.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)17.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home17.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)11.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw9.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)8.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home8.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw7.7%

Away to win by 17.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)4.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away4.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home3.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.9%

Away to win by 22.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.1%

Away to win by 3+1.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.559.1%

BTTS & Over 2.554.9%

Home & BTTS40.8%

Home & No BTTS32.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.519.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.518.9%

Home & Under 2.514.2%

Draw & BTTS12.7%

Draw & Under 2.58.4%

Away & Over 2.58.2%

Away & BTTS7.6%

Draw & Over 2.56.5%

BTTS & Under 2.56.3%

Away & No BTTS4.0%

Away & Under 2.53.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.582.4%

HT Home Win56.1%

HT Over 1.551.8%

HT/FT Home/Home51.4%

HT Under 1.548.2%

2nd Half More Goals47.1%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT Draw29.9%

HT Both Teams Score27.1%

Equal Goals Each Half20.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.2%

HT Under 0.517.6%

HT Away Win14.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.6%

HT/FT Away/Away6.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.2%

HT/FT Away/Home4.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Home/Away1.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions