Italy · Serie A

AS Roma vs Fiorentina

Kick-off 19:45 · Mon, Aug 24

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

57% confidence

AS Roma 56.5% Draw 24.7% Fiorentina 18.8%

Over 2.5 - 63% BTTS - 44%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

81%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

78%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 10.4%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to AS Roma: 16 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.4%

Exact-score model probability

AS Roma

W W W W W D

Form 5-1-0 Goals 14:3 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 0.5

Fiorentina

D W D L D D

Form 1-4-1 Goals 4:6 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 5

AS Roma 3wins ·1 draws ·Fiorentina 1wins

AS Roma 4-0 FiorentinaMay 4, 2026

AS Roma 2-1 FiorentinaOct 5, 2025

AS Roma 1-0 FiorentinaMay 4, 2025

AS Roma 1-5 FiorentinaOct 27, 2024

AS Roma 2-2 FiorentinaMar 10, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

AS Roma win56.5%

Draw24.7%

Fiorentina win18.8%

Over 1.5 goals71.4%

Over 2.5 goals62.5%

Over 3.5 goals24.2%

Both teams to score44.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

90.2%

Home Over 0.5

90.2%

Under 5.5 Goals

88.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)86.4%

Draw No Bet - Home83.5%

Home or Away (12)82.0%

Home Win68.4%

Both Halves Over 0.564.2%

Goal in Both Halves64.2%

Draw or Away (X2)31.5%

Draw18.0%

Draw No Bet - Away16.5%

Away Win13.6%

Exactly 1 Goal12.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.1%

Under 5.5 Goals88.8%

Over 1.5 Goals83.6%

Under 4.5 Goals77.0%

Over 2.5 Goals63.3%

2-4 Goals60.6%

Under 3.5 Goals58.9%

1-3 Goals55.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals42.5%

Over 3.5 Goals41.1%

4+ Goals41.1%

3-4 Goals40.2%

Under 2.5 Goals36.7%

1-2 Goals32.8%

Over 4.5 Goals23.0%

Exactly 3 Goals22.2%

Exactly 2 Goals20.4%

Under 1.5 Goals16.4%

Over 5.5 Goals11.2%

Under 0.5 Goals3.9%

Exactly 0 Goals3.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score90.2%

Away Team to Score60.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)54.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)45.2%

Home Clean Sheet39.2%

Home Win to Nil35.4%

Away Clean Sheet9.7%

Away Win to Nil5.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.590.2%

Home Over 1.567.5%

Away Over 0.560.7%

Home Over 2.541.1%

Home 3+ Goals41.1%

Away Exactly 039.2%

Away Exactly 136.7%

Home Exactly 226.4%

Away Over 1.524.1%

Home Exactly 122.7%

Away Exactly 217.2%

Home Exactly 09.7%

Away Over 2.56.9%

Away 3+ Goals6.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)88.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away88.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)86.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home86.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)74.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away74.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)68.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)54.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away54.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)45.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home45.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)31.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away31.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)25.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home25.3%

Home to win by 3+25.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.8%

Home to win by 122.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw20.3%

Home to win by 220.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)13.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw13.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)11.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home11.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw9.2%

Away to win by 19.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw7.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)4.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away4.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.3%

Away to win by 23.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.1%

Away to win by 3+1.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.549.2%

BTTS & Over 2.546.5%

Home & No BTTS35.4%

Home & BTTS33.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.528.3%

Home & Under 2.519.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.516.8%

Draw & BTTS14.1%

Draw & Under 2.512.2%

Away & Over 2.58.3%

BTTS & Under 2.58.3%

Away & BTTS7.6%

Away & No BTTS5.9%

Draw & Over 2.55.8%

Away & Under 2.55.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.577.0%

HT Under 1.556.8%

HT Home Win50.9%

HT/FT Home/Home46.0%

2nd Half More Goals45.5%

HT Over 1.543.2%

HT Draw34.4%

1st Half More Goals31.7%

HT Under 0.523.0%

Equal Goals Each Half22.9%

HT Both Teams Score22.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home19.1%

HT Away Win14.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.1%

HT/FT Away/Away7.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Away/Home3.4%

HT/FT Home/Away1.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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