Italy · Serie A

AS Roma vs Genoa

Kick-off 19:45 · Sat, Oct 17

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

70% confidence

AS Roma 69.6% Draw 20.2% Genoa 10.2%

Over 2.5 - 62% BTTS - 29%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

78%

No Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

71%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 12.2%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to AS Roma: 9 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: AS Roma 3 wins, 1 draws, Genoa 1 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

12.2%

Exact-score model probability

AS Roma

L D D W D W

Form 2-3-1 Goals 10:8 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.33

Genoa

W L D L L L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 5:11 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 5

AS Roma 3wins ·1 draws ·Genoa 1wins

AS Roma 1-2 GenoaMar 8, 2026

AS Roma 3-1 GenoaDec 29, 2025

AS Roma 3-1 GenoaJan 17, 2025

AS Roma 1-1 GenoaSep 15, 2024

AS Roma 1-0 GenoaMay 19, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

AS Roma win69.6%

Draw20.2%

Genoa win10.2%

Over 1.5 goals73.1%

Over 2.5 goals62.2%

Over 3.5 goals25.9%

Both teams to score29.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

91.2%

Home Over 0.5

91.2%

Home or Draw (1X)

90.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)90.2%

Draw No Bet - Home88.5%

Home or Away (12)83.9%

Home Win74.3%

Both Halves Over 0.563.1%

Goal in Both Halves63.1%

Draw or Away (X2)25.6%

Draw16.0%

Exactly 1 Goal13.1%

Draw No Bet - Away11.5%

Away Win9.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.8%

Under 5.5 Goals89.6%

Over 1.5 Goals82.7%

Under 4.5 Goals78.2%

Over 2.5 Goals61.8%

2-4 Goals61.0%

Under 3.5 Goals60.4%

1-3 Goals56.2%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals43.2%

3-4 Goals40.1%

Over 3.5 Goals39.6%

4+ Goals39.6%

Under 2.5 Goals38.2%

1-2 Goals34.0%

Exactly 3 Goals22.3%

Over 4.5 Goals21.8%

Exactly 2 Goals20.9%

Under 1.5 Goals17.3%

Over 5.5 Goals10.4%

Under 0.5 Goals4.2%

Exactly 0 Goals4.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score91.2%

Away Team to Score53.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)51.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)48.5%

Home Clean Sheet46.8%

Home Win to Nil42.7%

Away Clean Sheet8.7%

Away Win to Nil4.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.591.2%

Home Over 1.569.9%

Away Over 0.553.1%

Away Exactly 046.8%

Home Over 2.543.9%

Home 3+ Goals43.9%

Away Exactly 135.5%

Home Exactly 226.0%

Home Exactly 121.3%

Away Over 1.517.6%

Away Exactly 213.5%

Home Exactly 08.7%

Away Over 2.54.2%

Away 3+ Goals4.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)93.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away93.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)90.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home90.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)85.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away85.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)74.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)69.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away69.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)51.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home51.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)48.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away48.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)30.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home30.1%

Home to win by 3+30.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)25.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away25.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.5%

Home to win by 122.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw21.6%

Home to win by 221.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)14.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home14.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)9.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw8.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw7.0%

Away to win by 17.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)6.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home6.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.1%

Away to win by 22.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.6%

Away to win by 3+0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.552.1%

Home & No BTTS42.7%

BTTS & Over 2.540.9%

Home & BTTS31.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.530.5%

Home & Under 2.522.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.520.9%

Draw & BTTS11.9%

Draw & Under 2.511.7%

BTTS & Under 2.57.6%

Away & Over 2.55.4%

Away & BTTS5.0%

Away & No BTTS4.6%

Draw & Over 2.54.3%

Away & Under 2.54.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.576.3%

HT Under 1.557.9%

HT Home Win55.0%

HT/FT Home/Home51.1%

2nd Half More Goals45.2%

HT Over 1.542.1%

HT Draw33.5%

1st Half More Goals31.6%

HT Under 0.523.7%

Equal Goals Each Half23.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home20.2%

HT Both Teams Score19.3%

HT Away Win11.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.5%

HT/FT Away/Away5.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Away/Home3.1%

HT/FT Home/Away0.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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