UEFA Champions League

AS Roma vs Real Madrid

Kick-off 20:00 · Wed, Oct 14

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

80% confidence

AS Roma 80.3% Draw 11.5% Real Madrid 8.2%

Over 2.5 - 87% BTTS - 71%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

87%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

80%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7.4%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.66 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.4%

Exact-score model probability

AS Roma

D D W D W W

Form 3-3-0 Goals 11:4 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 0.67

Real Madrid

W L W W W L

Form 4-0-2 Goals 11:7 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

AS Roma win80.3%

Draw11.5%

Real Madrid win8.2%

Over 1.5 goals96.2%

Over 2.5 goals87.2%

Over 3.5 goals72.8%

Both teams to score70.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

91.3%

Draw No Bet - Home

90.4%

Home or Draw (1X)

90.1%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home90.4%

Home or Draw (1X)90.1%

Home or Away (12)88.1%

Both Halves Over 0.583.6%

Goal in Both Halves83.6%

Home Win79.6%

Draw or Away (X2)19.0%

Draw10.5%

Draw No Bet - Away9.6%

Away Win8.5%

Exactly 1 Goal3.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.9%

Over 1.5 Goals94.5%

Over 2.5 Goals86.0%

Over 3.5 Goals71.8%

4+ Goals71.8%

Under 5.5 Goals63.4%

Over 4.5 Goals54.2%

Total Goals Odd49.3%

Total Goals Even49.3%

Under 4.5 Goals45.8%

2-4 Goals40.3%

Over 5.5 Goals36.6%

3-4 Goals31.8%

Under 3.5 Goals28.2%

1-3 Goals26.2%

2-3 Goals22.7%

Exactly 3 Goals14.2%

Under 2.5 Goals14.0%

1-2 Goals12.0%

Exactly 2 Goals8.5%

Under 1.5 Goals5.5%

Under 0.5 Goals2.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.2%

Away Team to Score71.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)69.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)30.7%

Home Clean Sheet27.6%

Home Win to Nil26.9%

Away Clean Sheet2.5%

Away Win to Nil1.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.2%

Home Over 1.587.0%

Away Over 0.571.1%

Home Over 2.570.1%

Home 3+ Goals70.1%

Away Over 1.535.9%

Away Exactly 135.1%

Away Exactly 027.6%

Away Exactly 222.4%

Home Exactly 216.9%

Away Over 2.513.5%

Away 3+ Goals13.5%

Home Exactly 19.1%

Home Exactly 02.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.6%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)91.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)90.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home90.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)82.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away82.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)79.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)69.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away69.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)63.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home63.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)53.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away53.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)45.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home45.7%

Home to win by 3+45.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)34.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away34.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)28.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home28.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)19.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away19.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.2%

Home to win by 218.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)15.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home15.7%

Home to win by 115.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw13.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)8.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)7.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home7.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.4%

Away to win by 15.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.2%

Away to win by 22.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.9%

Away to win by 3+0.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.572.3%

BTTS & Over 2.566.0%

Home & BTTS52.7%

Home & No BTTS26.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.519.9%

Draw & BTTS9.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.59.4%

Home & Under 2.57.3%

Away & Over 2.57.1%

Away & BTTS6.7%

Draw & Over 2.56.6%

Draw & Under 2.53.9%

BTTS & Under 2.53.3%

Away & No BTTS1.8%

Away & Under 2.51.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.589.3%

HT Over 1.565.5%

HT Home Win64.0%

HT/FT Home/Home60.1%

2nd Half More Goals49.6%

HT Both Teams Score35.4%

HT Under 1.534.5%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw23.5%

Equal Goals Each Half18.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.1%

HT Away Win12.4%

HT Under 0.510.7%

HT/FT Away/Away4.7%

HT/FT Away/Home4.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.8%

HT/FT Home/Away1.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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