Italy · Serie A

AS Roma vs Sassuolo

Full time · 3:0

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

75% confidence

AS Roma 74.7% Draw 15.3% Sassuolo 9.8%

Over 2.5 - 96% BTTS - 88%

✓ Pick was correct (3:0)

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

88%

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

85%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 6.5%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to AS Roma: 13 points versus 1 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.66 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.5%

Exact-score model probability

AS Roma

L W W D W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 20:10 Scored/game 3.33 Conceded/game 1.67

Sassuolo

L L L L D L

Form 0-1-5 Goals 8:19 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 3.17

Head to head · last 5

AS Roma 4wins ·0 draws ·Sassuolo 1wins

AS Roma 2-0 SassuoloJan 10, 2026

AS Roma 1-0 SassuoloOct 26, 2025

AS Roma 1-0 SassuoloMar 17, 2024

AS Roma 2-1 SassuoloDec 3, 2023

AS Roma 3-4 SassuoloMar 12, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

AS Roma win74.7%

Draw15.3%

Sassuolo win9.8%

Over 1.5 goals85.0%

Over 2.5 goals96.1%

Over 3.5 goals43.7%

Both teams to score87.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

91.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

91.9%

HT Over 0.5

90.7%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.585.7%

Goal in Both Halves85.7%

Home or Away (12)85.3%

Home or Draw (1X)83.2%

Draw No Bet - Home81.5%

Home Win69.5%

Draw or Away (X2)29.5%

Draw No Bet - Away18.5%

Away Win15.8%

Draw13.7%

Exactly 1 Goal2.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.5%

Over 1.5 Goals95.8%

Over 2.5 Goals88.6%

Over 3.5 Goals76.1%

4+ Goals76.1%

Over 4.5 Goals59.6%

Under 5.5 Goals57.8%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

Total Goals Even49.5%

Over 5.5 Goals42.2%

Under 4.5 Goals40.4%

2-4 Goals36.2%

3-4 Goals29.1%

Under 3.5 Goals23.9%

1-3 Goals22.4%

2-3 Goals19.7%

Exactly 3 Goals12.5%

Under 2.5 Goals11.4%

1-2 Goals9.8%

Exactly 2 Goals7.1%

Under 1.5 Goals4.2%

Under 0.5 Goals1.5%

Exactly 0 Goals0.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.0%

Away Team to Score82.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)79.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)20.5%

Home Clean Sheet17.0%

Home Win to Nil16.5%

Away Clean Sheet3.0%

Away Win to Nil2.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.0%

Home Over 1.585.5%

Away Over 0.582.0%

Home Over 2.567.1%

Home 3+ Goals67.1%

Away Over 1.552.1%

Away Exactly 129.9%

Away Exactly 226.4%

Away Over 2.525.7%

Away 3+ Goals25.7%

Home Exactly 218.4%

Away Exactly 017.0%

Home Exactly 110.5%

Home Exactly 03.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)94.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)91.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home91.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)88.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away88.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)83.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home83.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)78.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away78.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)69.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)64.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away64.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)52.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home52.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)46.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away46.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)34.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home34.9%

Home to win by 3+34.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)29.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away29.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)20.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home20.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.4%

Home to win by 217.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.2%

Home to win by 117.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)15.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)10.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home10.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw10.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw8.7%

Away to win by 18.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw5.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.4%

Away to win by 24.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.7%

Away to win by 3+2.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.576.4%

Home & Over 2.564.6%

Home & BTTS53.1%

Home & No BTTS16.5%

Away & Over 2.514.1%

Away & BTTS13.3%

Draw & BTTS13.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.3%

Draw & Over 2.510.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.57.2%

Home & Under 2.55.0%

Draw & Under 2.53.7%

BTTS & Under 2.53.2%

Away & No BTTS2.5%

Away & Under 2.51.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.7%

HT Over 1.568.5%

HT Home Win56.0%

2nd Half More Goals50.1%

HT/FT Home/Home49.9%

HT Both Teams Score43.5%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.531.5%

HT Draw25.2%

HT Away Win18.8%

Equal Goals Each Half17.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.1%

HT Under 0.59.3%

HT/FT Away/Away9.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home5.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Away2.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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