England · Premier League

Aston Villa vs Arsenal

Kick-off 20:00 · Mon, Aug 31

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

52% confidence

Aston Villa 20.7% Draw 27.2% Arsenal 52.1%

Over 2.5 - 88% BTTS - 85%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

85%

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

79%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 7.2%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Arsenal: 13 points versus 18 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.2%

Exact-score model probability

Aston Villa

L W W W D W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 15:9 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 1.5

Arsenal

W W W W W W

Form 6-0-0 Goals 11:1 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 0.17

Head to head · last 5

Aston Villa 2wins ·1 draws ·Arsenal 2wins

Aston Villa 1-4 ArsenalDec 30, 2025

Aston Villa 2-1 ArsenalDec 6, 2025

Aston Villa 2-2 ArsenalJan 18, 2025

Aston Villa 0-2 ArsenalAug 24, 2024

Aston Villa 2-0 ArsenalApr 14, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Aston Villa win20.7%

Draw27.2%

Arsenal win52.1%

Over 1.5 goals72.9%

Over 2.5 goals88.1%

Over 3.5 goals24.8%

Both teams to score84.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

91.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

91.5%

Home Team to Score

89.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.1%

Both Halves Over 0.577.4%

Goal in Both Halves77.4%

Home or Draw (1X)65.1%

Draw No Bet - Home56.5%

Draw or Away (X2)54.6%

Home Win45.3%

Draw No Bet - Away43.5%

Away Win34.8%

Draw19.8%

Exactly 1 Goal5.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.5%

Over 1.5 Goals92.6%

Over 2.5 Goals80.0%

Under 5.5 Goals74.0%

Over 3.5 Goals61.9%

4+ Goals61.9%

Under 4.5 Goals57.4%

2-4 Goals50.1%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 4.5 Goals42.6%

Under 3.5 Goals38.1%

3-4 Goals37.4%

1-3 Goals36.6%

2-3 Goals30.7%

Over 5.5 Goals26.0%

Under 2.5 Goals20.0%

1-2 Goals18.5%

Exactly 3 Goals18.1%

Exactly 2 Goals12.6%

Under 1.5 Goals7.4%

Under 0.5 Goals1.5%

Exactly 0 Goals1.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score89.7%

Away Team to Score86.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)77.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)22.4%

Home Clean Sheet13.5%

Home Win to Nil12.1%

Away Clean Sheet10.2%

Away Win to Nil8.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.589.7%

Away Over 0.586.4%

Home Over 1.566.4%

Away Over 1.559.4%

Home Over 2.539.9%

Home 3+ Goals39.9%

Away Over 2.532.3%

Away 3+ Goals32.3%

Away Exactly 227.1%

Away Exactly 127.0%

Home Exactly 226.6%

Home Exactly 123.3%

Away Exactly 013.5%

Home Exactly 010.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)94.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away94.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)91.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home91.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)86.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away86.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)81.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home81.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)73.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away73.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)65.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home65.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)54.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away54.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)45.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)34.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)26.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home26.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)18.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away18.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.4%

Home to win by 118.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.2%

Away to win by 116.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)13.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home13.5%

Home to win by 3+13.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.3%

Home to win by 213.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw10.3%

Away to win by 210.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)8.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away8.4%

Away to win by 3+8.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)5.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home5.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.7%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.571.3%

Home & Over 2.538.6%

Home & BTTS33.2%

Away & Over 2.529.3%

Away & BTTS26.0%

Draw & BTTS18.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.513.6%

Draw & Over 2.512.1%

Home & No BTTS12.1%

Away & No BTTS8.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.7%

Draw & Under 2.57.7%

Home & Under 2.56.7%

BTTS & Under 2.56.3%

Away & Under 2.55.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.5%

HT Over 1.557.4%

2nd Half More Goals48.2%

HT Under 1.542.6%

HT Both Teams Score38.1%

HT Home Win37.6%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw31.5%

HT Away Win30.9%

HT/FT Home/Home28.7%

HT/FT Away/Away21.3%

Equal Goals Each Half19.6%

HT Under 0.514.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home4.1%

HT/FT Home/Away3.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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