England · Premier League

Aston Villa vs Brentford

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Oct 10

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

42% confidence

Aston Villa 41.7% Draw 27.1% Brentford 31.2%

Over 2.5 - 94% BTTS - 91%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

91%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

73%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 6.6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Brentford: 7 points versus 12 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.84 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.6%

Exact-score model probability

Aston Villa

W L W D L L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 7:11 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.83

Brentford

W D D D W W

Form 3-3-0 Goals 16:5 Scored/game 2.67 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 5

Aston Villa 2wins ·1 draws ·Brentford 2wins

Aston Villa 0-1 BrentfordFeb 1, 2026

Aston Villa 0-1 BrentfordAug 23, 2025

Aston Villa 1-0 BrentfordMar 8, 2025

Aston Villa 3-1 BrentfordDec 4, 2024

Aston Villa 3-3 BrentfordApr 6, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Aston Villa win41.7%

Draw27.1%

Brentford win31.2%

Over 1.5 goals79.5%

Over 2.5 goals94.4%

Over 3.5 goals32.7%

Both teams to score90.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

90.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

90.1%

Home Team to Score

89.9%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.583.3%

Goal in Both Halves83.3%

Home or Away (12)81.5%

Draw or Away (X2)64.4%

Draw No Bet - Away56.6%

Home or Draw (1X)53.7%

Away Win46.1%

Draw No Bet - Home43.4%

Home Win35.4%

Draw18.3%

Exactly 1 Goal3.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.1%

Over 1.5 Goals95.5%

Over 2.5 Goals86.8%

Over 3.5 Goals72.4%

4+ Goals72.4%

Under 5.5 Goals62.9%

Over 4.5 Goals54.6%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Under 4.5 Goals45.4%

2-4 Goals40.9%

Over 5.5 Goals37.1%

3-4 Goals32.2%

Under 3.5 Goals27.6%

1-3 Goals26.7%

2-3 Goals23.1%

Exactly 3 Goals14.4%

Under 2.5 Goals13.2%

1-2 Goals12.3%

Exactly 2 Goals8.7%

Under 1.5 Goals4.5%

Under 0.5 Goals0.9%

Exactly 0 Goals0.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score92.5%

Home Team to Score89.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)83.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)16.6%

Away Clean Sheet9.9%

Away Win to Nil9.2%

Home Clean Sheet7.2%

Home Win to Nil6.5%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.592.5%

Home Over 0.589.9%

Away Over 1.573.5%

Home Over 1.567.0%

Away Over 2.548.6%

Away 3+ Goals48.6%

Home Over 2.540.6%

Home 3+ Goals40.6%

Home Exactly 226.4%

Away Exactly 224.9%

Home Exactly 122.9%

Away Exactly 119.0%

Home Exactly 09.9%

Away Exactly 07.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)92.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home92.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)90.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away90.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)84.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home84.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)79.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away79.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)71.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home71.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)64.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away64.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)53.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home53.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)46.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)35.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)28.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away28.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)20.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home20.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.4%

Away to win by 117.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)15.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away15.4%

Away to win by 3+15.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.3%

Home to win by 115.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw13.3%

Away to win by 213.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw10.3%

Home to win by 210.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)9.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home9.7%

Home to win by 3+9.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw8.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)7.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away7.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw5.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw4.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home4.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away2.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.4%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.579.0%

Away & Over 2.541.8%

Away & BTTS36.9%

Home & Over 2.531.8%

Home & BTTS28.8%

Draw & BTTS17.6%

Draw & Over 2.513.2%

Away & No BTTS9.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.58.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.8%

Home & No BTTS6.5%

Draw & Under 2.55.1%

Away & Under 2.54.4%

BTTS & Under 2.54.4%

Home & Under 2.53.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.589.2%

HT Over 1.565.1%

2nd Half More Goals49.5%

HT Both Teams Score44.8%

HT Away Win39.1%

HT Under 1.534.9%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Home Win32.1%

HT/FT Away/Away29.8%

HT Draw28.9%

HT/FT Home/Home22.0%

Equal Goals Each Half18.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away11.9%

HT Under 0.510.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home9.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Away4.6%

HT/FT Away/Home3.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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