UEFA Champions League

Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe

Kick-off 20:00 · Wed, Oct 14

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

58% confidence

Aston Villa 22.7% Draw 19.3% Fenerbahçe 58.0%

Over 2.5 - 82% BTTS - 77%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

81%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

77%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 7.6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Fenerbahçe: 8 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.6%

Exact-score model probability

Aston Villa

D W L W D L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 9:9 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.5

Fenerbahçe

D W D L W W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 8:5 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 0.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

Aston Villa win22.7%

Draw19.3%

Fenerbahçe win58.0%

Over 1.5 goals94.2%

Over 2.5 goals81.6%

Over 3.5 goals64.2%

Both teams to score77.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

88.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

88.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

88.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)82.0%

Both Halves Over 0.578.7%

Goal in Both Halves78.7%

Draw or Away (X2)76.5%

Draw No Bet - Away71.5%

Away Win58.7%

Home or Draw (1X)41.1%

Draw No Bet - Home28.5%

Home Win23.3%

Draw17.8%

Exactly 1 Goal5.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.6%

Over 1.5 Goals93.3%

Over 2.5 Goals81.5%

Under 5.5 Goals71.9%

Over 3.5 Goals64.1%

4+ Goals64.1%

Under 4.5 Goals55.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

2-4 Goals48.3%

Over 4.5 Goals45.0%

3-4 Goals36.5%

Under 3.5 Goals35.9%

1-3 Goals34.5%

2-3 Goals29.1%

Over 5.5 Goals28.1%

Under 2.5 Goals18.5%

Exactly 3 Goals17.3%

1-2 Goals17.1%

Exactly 2 Goals11.8%

Under 1.5 Goals6.7%

Under 0.5 Goals1.4%

Exactly 0 Goals1.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score93.1%

Home Team to Score81.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)76.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)23.7%

Away Clean Sheet18.0%

Away Win to Nil16.8%

Home Clean Sheet6.7%

Home Win to Nil5.5%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.593.1%

Home Over 0.581.8%

Away Over 1.575.0%

Home Over 1.550.9%

Away Over 2.550.5%

Away 3+ Goals50.5%

Home Exactly 130.9%

Home Exactly 226.4%

Home Over 2.524.5%

Home 3+ Goals24.5%

Away Exactly 224.5%

Away Exactly 118.1%

Home Exactly 018.0%

Away Exactly 06.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away95.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)88.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away88.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)88.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home88.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)77.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home77.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)76.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away76.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)60.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home60.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)58.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)41.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home41.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)39.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away39.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)23.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)22.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away22.5%

Away to win by 3+22.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.5%

Away to win by 119.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw16.7%

Away to win by 216.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.4%

Home to win by 112.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw11.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)11.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away11.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)11.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home11.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw6.7%

Home to win by 26.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw6.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)4.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away4.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)4.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home4.3%

Home to win by 3+4.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw3.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.9%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.570.7%

Away & Over 2.551.0%

Away & BTTS41.9%

Home & Over 2.519.5%

Home & BTTS17.9%

Away & No BTTS16.8%

Draw & BTTS16.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.512.7%

Draw & Over 2.511.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.8%

Away & Under 2.57.7%

Draw & Under 2.56.8%

BTTS & Under 2.55.6%

Home & No BTTS5.5%

Home & Under 2.53.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.3%

HT Over 1.559.0%

2nd Half More Goals48.5%

HT Away Win46.7%

HT Under 1.541.0%

HT/FT Away/Away39.2%

HT Both Teams Score37.8%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw29.9%

HT Home Win23.4%

Equal Goals Each Half19.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.9%

HT/FT Home/Home13.8%

HT Under 0.513.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home7.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Away4.7%

HT/FT Away/Home2.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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