England · Premier League

Aston Villa vs Manchester City

Full time · 2:1

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

50% confidence

Aston Villa 24.0% Draw 25.9% Manchester City 50.1%

Over 2.5 - 86% BTTS - 75%

✓ Pick was correct (2:1)

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

86%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

76%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 8.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Manchester City: 13 points versus 15 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 5.84 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.5%

Exact-score model probability

Aston Villa

W W W D W L

Form 4-1-1 Goals 16:7 Scored/game 2.67 Conceded/game 1.17

Manchester City

W W L W W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 19:10 Scored/game 3.17 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 5

Aston Villa 3wins ·0 draws ·Manchester City 2wins

Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester CityMay 24, 2026

Aston Villa 1-0 Manchester CityOct 26, 2025

Aston Villa 1-2 Manchester CityApr 22, 2025

Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester CityDec 21, 2024

Aston Villa 1-4 Manchester CityApr 3, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Aston Villa win24.0%

Draw25.9%

Manchester City win50.1%

Over 1.5 goals79.0%

Over 2.5 goals85.9%

Over 3.5 goals32.2%

Both teams to score74.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

92.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

92.0%

Over 1.5 Goals

91.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)82.5%

Draw or Away (X2)81.1%

Draw No Bet - Away77.3%

Both Halves Over 0.575.1%

Goal in Both Halves75.1%

Away Win63.7%

Home or Draw (1X)36.1%

Draw No Bet - Home22.7%

Home Win18.8%

Draw17.4%

Exactly 1 Goal6.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.1%

Over 1.5 Goals91.2%

Under 5.5 Goals77.5%

Over 2.5 Goals77.1%

Under 4.5 Goals61.6%

Over 3.5 Goals57.9%

4+ Goals57.9%

2-4 Goals52.8%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals42.1%

1-3 Goals40.2%

3-4 Goals38.7%

Over 4.5 Goals38.4%

2-3 Goals33.3%

Under 2.5 Goals22.9%

Over 5.5 Goals22.5%

1-2 Goals21.0%

Exactly 3 Goals19.2%

Exactly 2 Goals14.1%

Under 1.5 Goals8.8%

Under 0.5 Goals1.9%

Exactly 0 Goals1.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score92.8%

Home Team to Score75.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)70.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)29.7%

Away Clean Sheet24.2%

Away Win to Nil22.5%

Home Clean Sheet7.0%

Home Win to Nil5.3%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.592.8%

Home Over 0.575.6%

Away Over 1.574.2%

Away Over 2.549.4%

Away 3+ Goals49.4%

Home Over 1.541.4%

Home Exactly 134.3%

Away Exactly 224.8%

Home Exactly 224.3%

Home Exactly 024.2%

Away Exactly 118.7%

Home Over 2.517.1%

Home 3+ Goals17.1%

Away Exactly 07.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.1%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)94.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home94.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)92.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away92.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)87.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home87.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)81.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away81.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)74.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home74.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)63.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)56.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home56.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)43.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away43.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)36.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home36.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)25.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away25.2%

Away to win by 3+25.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw20.4%

Away to win by 120.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)18.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw18.1%

Away to win by 218.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw12.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)12.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away12.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw10.9%

Home to win by 110.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)7.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home7.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw7.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)5.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away5.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw5.2%

Home to win by 25.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw3.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.7%

Home to win by 3+2.7%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.563.9%

Away & Over 2.553.2%

Away & BTTS41.2%

Away & No BTTS22.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.516.3%

Draw & BTTS15.7%

Home & Over 2.514.6%

Home & BTTS13.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.2%

Away & Under 2.510.5%

Draw & Over 2.59.2%

Draw & Under 2.58.1%

BTTS & Under 2.56.4%

Home & No BTTS5.3%

Home & Under 2.54.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.584.0%

HT Over 1.554.7%

HT Away Win49.5%

2nd Half More Goals47.7%

HT Under 1.545.3%

HT/FT Away/Away43.1%

HT Both Teams Score32.9%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw30.7%

Equal Goals Each Half20.1%

HT Home Win19.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away16.4%

HT Under 0.516.0%

HT/FT Home/Home10.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home6.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Away4.4%

HT/FT Away/Home1.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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