England · Premier League

Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Sep 12

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

45% confidence

Aston Villa 45.2% Draw 28.7% Nottingham Forest 26.1%

Over 2.5 - 95% BTTS - 84%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

84%

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Aston Villa: 10 points versus 3 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Aston Villa 3 wins, 1 draws, Nottingham Forest 1 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Aston Villa

W D L L W W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 8:8 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.33

Nottingham Forest

D D L L D L

Form 0-3-3 Goals 5:9 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 5

Aston Villa 3wins ·1 draws ·Nottingham Forest 1wins

Aston Villa 4-0 Nottingham ForestMay 7, 2026

Aston Villa 0-1 Nottingham ForestApr 30, 2026

Aston Villa 1-1 Nottingham ForestApr 12, 2026

Aston Villa 3-1 Nottingham ForestJan 3, 2026

Aston Villa 2-1 Nottingham ForestApr 5, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Aston Villa win45.2%

Draw28.7%

Nottingham Forest win26.1%

Over 1.5 goals73.8%

Over 2.5 goals95.1%

Over 3.5 goals25.4%

Both teams to score83.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

90.1%

Over 2.5 Goals

87.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

86.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)86.3%

Home or Draw (1X)86.2%

Draw No Bet - Home85.2%

Both Halves Over 0.584.7%

Goal in Both Halves84.7%

Home Win73.5%

Draw or Away (X2)25.3%

Draw No Bet - Away14.8%

Away Win12.7%

Draw12.6%

Exactly 1 Goal3.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.3%

Over 1.5 Goals95.3%

Over 2.5 Goals87.5%

Over 3.5 Goals74.2%

4+ Goals74.2%

Under 5.5 Goals60.4%

Over 4.5 Goals57.2%

Total Goals Even49.5%

Total Goals Odd49.4%

Under 4.5 Goals42.8%

Over 5.5 Goals39.6%

2-4 Goals38.1%

3-4 Goals30.3%

Under 3.5 Goals25.8%

1-3 Goals24.1%

2-3 Goals21.1%

Exactly 3 Goals13.3%

Under 2.5 Goals12.5%

1-2 Goals10.8%

Exactly 2 Goals7.8%

Under 1.5 Goals4.7%

Under 0.5 Goals1.7%

Exactly 0 Goals0.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.1%

Away Team to Score78.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)76.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)24.0%

Home Clean Sheet20.6%

Home Win to Nil20.0%

Away Clean Sheet2.8%

Away Win to Nil2.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 1.586.0%

Away Over 0.578.3%

Home Over 2.568.0%

Home 3+ Goals68.0%

Away Over 1.545.9%

Away Exactly 132.3%

Away Exactly 225.3%

Away Over 2.520.6%

Away Exactly 020.6%

Away 3+ Goals20.6%

Home Exactly 218.0%

Home Exactly 110.1%

Home Exactly 02.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)93.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)86.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away86.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)86.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home86.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)75.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away75.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)73.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)60.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away60.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)56.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home56.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)42.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away42.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)38.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home38.8%

Home to win by 3+38.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)25.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away25.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)23.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home23.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.9%

Home to win by 217.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.9%

Home to win by 116.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)12.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)12.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home12.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw11.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw7.4%

Away to win by 17.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)5.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home5.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.5%

Away to win by 23.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.9%

Away to win by 3+1.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.572.7%

Home & Over 2.567.7%

Home & BTTS53.5%

Home & No BTTS20.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.514.8%

Draw & BTTS12.0%

Away & Over 2.511.1%

Away & BTTS10.5%

Draw & Over 2.58.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.58.1%

Home & Under 2.55.9%

Draw & Under 2.53.9%

BTTS & Under 2.53.3%

Away & No BTTS2.2%

Away & Under 2.51.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.1%

HT Over 1.567.1%

HT Home Win59.0%

HT/FT Home/Home53.7%

2nd Half More Goals49.9%

HT Both Teams Score40.4%

HT Under 1.532.9%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw24.8%

Equal Goals Each Half17.7%

HT Away Win16.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.6%

HT Under 0.59.9%

HT/FT Away/Away7.3%

HT/FT Away/Home5.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.7%

HT/FT Home/Away1.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions