Italy · Serie A

Atalanta vs Bologna

Kick-off 19:45 · Mon, Aug 31

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

52% confidence

Atalanta 52.2% Draw 25.1% Bologna 22.7%

Over 2.5 - 34% BTTS - 43%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

77%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 14.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Atalanta: 9 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Atalanta 2 wins, 1 draws, Bologna 2 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

14.5%

Exact-score model probability

Atalanta

W D D L W D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 6:5 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 0.83

Bologna

L D W W D L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 7:8 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 5

Atalanta 2wins ·1 draws ·Bologna 2wins

Atalanta 0-1 BolognaMay 17, 2026

Atalanta 2-0 BolognaJan 7, 2026

Atalanta 2-0 BolognaApr 13, 2025

Atalanta 1-1 BolognaSep 28, 2024

Atalanta 1-2 BolognaMar 3, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Atalanta win52.2%

Draw25.1%

Bologna win22.7%

Over 1.5 goals73.8%

Over 2.5 goals33.5%

Over 3.5 goals26.7%

Both teams to score42.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

88.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

88.8%

Under 3.5 Goals

86.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)68.9%

Home or Draw (1X)68.5%

Draw or Away (X2)62.6%

Draw No Bet - Home54.3%

Draw No Bet - Away45.7%

Both Halves Over 0.538.9%

Goal in Both Halves38.9%

Home Win37.4%

Away Win31.5%

Draw31.1%

Exactly 1 Goal27.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals98.4%

Under 4.5 Goals95.0%

Under 3.5 Goals86.2%

Over 0.5 Goals86.1%

1-3 Goals72.3%

Under 2.5 Goals68.5%

Over 1.5 Goals58.6%

1-2 Goals54.5%

2-4 Goals53.6%

Total Goals Even51.0%

Total Goals Odd49.0%

2-3 Goals44.8%

Under 1.5 Goals41.4%

Over 2.5 Goals31.5%

Exactly 2 Goals27.1%

3-4 Goals26.5%

Exactly 3 Goals17.8%

Under 0.5 Goals13.9%

Exactly 0 Goals13.9%

Over 3.5 Goals13.8%

4+ Goals13.8%

Over 4.5 Goals5.0%

Over 5.5 Goals1.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score64.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)60.9%

Away Team to Score60.5%

Home Clean Sheet39.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)39.1%

Away Clean Sheet35.3%

Home Win to Nil25.5%

Away Win to Nil21.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.564.7%

Away Over 0.560.5%

Away Exactly 039.5%

Home Exactly 136.8%

Away Exactly 136.7%

Home Exactly 035.3%

Home Over 1.527.9%

Away Over 1.523.8%

Home Exactly 219.1%

Away Exactly 217.0%

Home Over 2.58.8%

Home 3+ Goals8.8%

Away Over 2.56.8%

Away 3+ Goals6.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away95.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)88.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home88.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)85.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away85.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)68.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home68.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)62.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away62.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)37.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)31.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.8%

Home to win by 122.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw20.3%

Away to win by 120.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)14.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home14.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)11.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away11.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw10.3%

Home to win by 210.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.2%

Away to win by 28.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)4.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home4.3%

Home to win by 3+4.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.0%

Away to win by 3+3.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.555.0%

Draw & Under 2.527.4%

BTTS & Over 2.525.7%

Home & No BTTS25.5%

Home & Under 2.522.1%

Away & No BTTS21.4%

Away & Under 2.519.0%

Draw & BTTS17.1%

Home & Over 2.515.3%

BTTS & Under 2.513.5%

Away & Over 2.512.5%

Home & BTTS11.9%

Away & BTTS10.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.55.9%

Draw & Over 2.53.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.577.7%

HT Over 0.558.8%

HT Draw49.7%

HT Under 0.541.2%

2nd Half More Goals39.7%

Equal Goals Each Half30.9%

1st Half More Goals29.4%

HT Home Win26.9%

HT Away Win23.4%

HT Over 1.522.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw22.1%

HT/FT Home/Home21.2%

HT/FT Away/Away17.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.8%

HT Both Teams Score12.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away12.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Away/Home1.5%

HT/FT Home/Away1.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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