Italy · Serie A

Atalanta vs Cagliari

Kick-off 19:45 · Sat, Sep 12

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

63% confidence

Atalanta 63.1% Draw 22.3% Cagliari 14.5%

Over 2.5 - 20% BTTS - 29%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

85%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

80%

No Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

71%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 17.3%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Cagliari: 8 points versus 12 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Atalanta 2 wins, 1 draws, Cagliari 2 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

17.3%

Exact-score model probability

Atalanta

L W W D D L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 5:5 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 0.83

Cagliari

W L W W W L

Form 4-0-2 Goals 6:5 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 5

Atalanta 2wins ·1 draws ·Cagliari 2wins

Atalanta 2-3 CagliariApr 27, 2026

Atalanta 2-1 CagliariDec 13, 2025

Atalanta 0-0 CagliariFeb 15, 2025

Atalanta 1-0 CagliariDec 14, 2024

Atalanta 1-2 CagliariApr 7, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Atalanta win63.1%

Draw22.3%

Cagliari win14.5%

Over 1.5 goals72.3%

Over 2.5 goals20.1%

Over 3.5 goals25.3%

Both teams to score29.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 3.5 Goals

88.8%

Over 0.5 Goals

83.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

82.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)74.5%

Home or Away (12)67.9%

Draw No Bet - Home62.4%

Draw or Away (X2)57.6%

Home Win42.4%

Draw No Bet - Away37.6%

Both Halves Over 0.535.3%

Goal in Both Halves35.3%

Draw32.1%

Exactly 1 Goal29.5%

Away Win25.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals98.9%

Under 4.5 Goals96.2%

Under 3.5 Goals88.8%

Over 0.5 Goals83.8%

Under 2.5 Goals72.6%

1-3 Goals72.6%

1-2 Goals56.3%

Over 1.5 Goals54.2%

Total Goals Even51.3%

2-4 Goals50.5%

Total Goals Odd48.7%

Under 1.5 Goals45.8%

2-3 Goals43.1%

Over 2.5 Goals27.4%

Exactly 2 Goals26.8%

3-4 Goals23.6%

Exactly 3 Goals16.3%

Under 0.5 Goals16.2%

Exactly 0 Goals16.2%

Over 3.5 Goals11.2%

4+ Goals11.2%

Over 4.5 Goals3.8%

Over 5.5 Goals1.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score65.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)65.3%

Away Team to Score52.9%

Home Clean Sheet47.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)34.7%

Away Clean Sheet34.5%

Home Win to Nil30.9%

Away Win to Nil18.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.565.5%

Away Over 0.552.9%

Away Exactly 047.1%

Home Exactly 136.7%

Away Exactly 135.5%

Home Exactly 034.5%

Home Over 1.528.8%

Home Exactly 219.5%

Away Over 1.517.4%

Away Exactly 213.4%

Home Over 2.59.3%

Home 3+ Goals9.3%

Away Over 2.54.1%

Away 3+ Goals4.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)94.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away94.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)82.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away82.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)74.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home74.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)57.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away57.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)42.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)25.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw25.2%

Home to win by 125.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.8%

Away to win by 117.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)17.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home17.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw11.9%

Home to win by 211.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.0%

Away to win by 26.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)5.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home5.3%

Home to win by 3+5.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw4.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.7%

Away to win by 3+1.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.559.6%

Home & No BTTS30.9%

Draw & Under 2.529.3%

Home & Under 2.526.5%

BTTS & Over 2.521.6%

Away & No BTTS18.2%

Away & Under 2.516.8%

Home & Over 2.515.9%

Draw & BTTS15.9%

BTTS & Under 2.513.0%

Home & BTTS11.5%

Away & Over 2.58.7%

Away & BTTS7.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.55.8%

Draw & Over 2.52.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.580.2%

HT Over 0.555.9%

HT Draw51.6%

HT Under 0.544.1%

2nd Half More Goals38.7%

Equal Goals Each Half32.5%

HT Home Win29.2%

1st Half More Goals28.8%

HT/FT Home/Home24.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw23.9%

HT Over 1.519.8%

HT Away Win19.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.8%

HT/FT Away/Away13.7%

HT Both Teams Score10.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Away/Home1.4%

HT/FT Home/Away0.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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