Italy · Serie A

Atalanta vs Frosinone

Full time · 4:4

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

53% confidence

Atalanta 52.6% Draw 23.9% Frosinone 23.5%

Over 2.5 - 56% BTTS - 60%

✓ Pick was correct (4:4)

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

83%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

77%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

60%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 9.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Frosinone: 6 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.8%

Exact-score model probability

Atalanta

L W L L L W

Form 2-0-4 Goals 8:10 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.67

Frosinone

W L W D W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 13:8 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 2

Atalanta 1wins ·0 draws ·Frosinone 1wins

Atalanta 5-0 FrosinoneJan 15, 2024

Atalanta 1-2 FrosinoneAug 26, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Atalanta win52.6%

Draw23.9%

Frosinone win23.5%

Over 1.5 goals77.7%

Over 2.5 goals56.0%

Over 3.5 goals31.7%

Both teams to score60.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

88.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

87.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

87.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)77.7%

Home or Draw (1X)71.7%

Both Halves Over 0.564.8%

Goal in Both Halves64.8%

Draw No Bet - Home63.5%

Draw or Away (X2)50.6%

Home Win49.4%

Draw No Bet - Away36.5%

Away Win28.3%

Draw22.3%

Exactly 1 Goal12.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.3%

Under 5.5 Goals88.3%

Over 1.5 Goals84.1%

Under 4.5 Goals76.3%

Over 2.5 Goals64.0%

2-4 Goals60.4%

Under 3.5 Goals58.1%

1-3 Goals54.3%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals42.2%

Over 3.5 Goals41.9%

4+ Goals41.9%

3-4 Goals40.3%

Under 2.5 Goals36.0%

1-2 Goals32.3%

Over 4.5 Goals23.7%

Exactly 3 Goals22.1%

Exactly 2 Goals20.1%

Under 1.5 Goals15.9%

Over 5.5 Goals11.7%

Under 0.5 Goals3.7%

Exactly 0 Goals3.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score85.1%

Away Team to Score75.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)64.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)36.0%

Home Clean Sheet24.7%

Home Win to Nil21.0%

Away Clean Sheet14.9%

Away Win to Nil11.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.585.1%

Away Over 0.575.3%

Home Over 1.556.7%

Away Over 1.540.7%

Away Exactly 134.5%

Home Over 2.529.7%

Home 3+ Goals29.7%

Home Exactly 128.4%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Away Exactly 024.7%

Away Exactly 224.1%

Away Over 2.516.6%

Away 3+ Goals16.6%

Home Exactly 014.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)87.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home87.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)87.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away87.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)72.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away72.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)71.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home71.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)50.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away50.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)49.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)28.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)27.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home27.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.5%

Home to win by 121.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.8%

Away to win by 115.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.9%

Home to win by 214.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)12.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home12.9%

Home to win by 3+12.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)12.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away12.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.1%

Away to win by 28.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)5.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home5.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.4%

Away to win by 3+4.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.554.2%

Home & Over 2.535.7%

Home & BTTS28.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.526.1%

Home & No BTTS21.0%

Away & Over 2.519.6%

Draw & BTTS18.6%

Away & BTTS17.1%

Home & Under 2.513.7%

Draw & Under 2.513.5%

Away & No BTTS11.2%

BTTS & Under 2.59.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.8%

Draw & Over 2.58.8%

Away & Under 2.58.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.577.3%

HT Under 1.556.3%

2nd Half More Goals45.6%

HT Over 1.543.7%

HT Home Win38.4%

HT Draw36.6%

1st Half More Goals31.7%

HT/FT Home/Home30.9%

HT Both Teams Score26.9%

HT Away Win25.0%

HT Under 0.522.7%

Equal Goals Each Half22.7%

HT/FT Away/Away16.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw11.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home3.3%

HT/FT Home/Away2.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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