UEFA Europa Conference League

Atalanta vs Hapoel Tel Aviv

Kick-off 19:30 · Thu, Aug 20

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

47% confidence

Atalanta 20.3% Draw 33.2% Hapoel Tel Aviv 46.5%

Over 2.5 - 31% BTTS - 38%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 2.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

87%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-1 at 17.4%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Hapoel Tel Aviv: 6 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.92 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

17.4%

Exact-score model probability

Atalanta

D L W D L D

Form 1-3-2 Goals 7:8 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.33

Hapoel Tel Aviv

L W D W

Form 2-1-1 Goals 7:4 Scored/game 1.75 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Atalanta win20.3%

Draw33.2%

Hapoel Tel Aviv win46.5%

Over 1.5 goals59.6%

Over 2.5 goals31.0%

Over 3.5 goals13.4%

Both teams to score38.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 3.5 Goals

86.6%

Over 0.5 Goals

85.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

78.3%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)78.1%

Home or Away (12)70.0%

Draw No Bet - Away68.7%

Home or Draw (1X)51.9%

Away Win48.1%

Both Halves Over 0.538.4%

Goal in Both Halves38.4%

Draw No Bet - Home31.3%

Draw30.0%

Exactly 1 Goal27.8%

Home Win21.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals98.5%

Under 4.5 Goals95.2%

Under 3.5 Goals86.6%

Over 0.5 Goals85.8%

1-3 Goals72.4%

Under 2.5 Goals69.0%

Over 1.5 Goals58.0%

1-2 Goals54.8%

2-4 Goals53.2%

Total Goals Even51.0%

Total Goals Odd49.0%

2-3 Goals44.6%

Under 1.5 Goals42.0%

Over 2.5 Goals31.0%

Exactly 2 Goals27.0%

3-4 Goals26.1%

Exactly 3 Goals17.6%

Under 0.5 Goals14.2%

Exactly 0 Goals14.2%

Over 3.5 Goals13.4%

4+ Goals13.4%

Over 4.5 Goals4.8%

Over 5.5 Goals1.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score70.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)63.6%

Home Team to Score51.5%

Away Clean Sheet48.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)36.4%

Away Win to Nil34.2%

Home Clean Sheet29.4%

Home Win to Nil15.1%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.570.6%

Home Over 0.551.5%

Home Exactly 048.5%

Away Exactly 136.0%

Home Exactly 135.1%

Away Over 1.534.6%

Away Exactly 029.4%

Away Exactly 222.0%

Home Over 1.516.4%

Home Exactly 212.7%

Away Over 2.512.6%

Away 3+ Goals12.6%

Home Over 2.53.7%

Home 3+ Goals3.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)93.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away93.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)92.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home92.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)78.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home78.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)78.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away78.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)51.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home51.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)48.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw26.4%

Away to win by 126.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)21.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)21.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away21.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.6%

Home to win by 115.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw14.2%

Away to win by 214.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)7.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away7.5%

Away to win by 3+7.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)6.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home6.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw5.0%

Home to win by 25.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home1.3%

Home to win by 3+1.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.556.4%

Away & No BTTS34.2%

Away & Under 2.528.1%

Draw & Under 2.526.9%

BTTS & Over 2.523.8%

Away & Over 2.520.0%

Draw & BTTS15.7%

Home & No BTTS15.1%

Home & Under 2.514.0%

Away & BTTS13.9%

BTTS & Under 2.512.6%

Home & Over 2.57.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.2%

Home & BTTS6.8%

Draw & Over 2.53.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.578.1%

HT Over 0.558.4%

HT Draw49.4%

HT Under 0.541.6%

2nd Half More Goals39.6%

HT Away Win33.2%

Equal Goals Each Half31.1%

1st Half More Goals29.3%

HT/FT Away/Away28.2%

HT Over 1.521.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw21.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away18.3%

HT Home Win17.4%

HT Both Teams Score11.8%

HT/FT Home/Home11.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home9.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Away1.6%

HT/FT Away/Home0.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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