UEFA Europa Conference League

Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty

Kick-off 18:45 · Thu, Nov 5

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

68% confidence

Atalanta 68.0% Draw 19.0% Kairat Almaty 13.0%

Over 2.5 - 69% BTTS - 61%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

87%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

68%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Atalanta: 5 points versus 3 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.4%

Exact-score model probability

Atalanta

L D D L W L

Form 1-2-3 Goals 11:15 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 2.5

Kairat Almaty

L L L L W L

Form 1-0-5 Goals 1:9 Scored/game 0.17 Conceded/game 1.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Atalanta win68.0%

Draw19.0%

Kairat Almaty win13.0%

Over 1.5 goals87.9%

Over 2.5 goals68.8%

Over 3.5 goals47.4%

Both teams to score60.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

91.7%

Home Over 0.5

91.7%

Over 1.5 Goals

86.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)85.9%

Draw No Bet - Home83.1%

Home or Away (12)82.8%

Home Win68.9%

Both Halves Over 0.568.5%

Goal in Both Halves68.5%

Draw or Away (X2)31.0%

Draw17.1%

Draw No Bet - Away16.9%

Away Win14.0%

Exactly 1 Goal10.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.0%

Over 1.5 Goals86.8%

Under 5.5 Goals85.2%

Under 4.5 Goals71.7%

Over 2.5 Goals68.7%

2-4 Goals58.5%

Under 3.5 Goals52.7%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

1-3 Goals49.7%

Over 3.5 Goals47.3%

4+ Goals47.3%

3-4 Goals40.4%

2-3 Goals39.5%

Under 2.5 Goals31.3%

Over 4.5 Goals28.3%

1-2 Goals28.3%

Exactly 3 Goals21.4%

Exactly 2 Goals18.1%

Over 5.5 Goals14.8%

Under 1.5 Goals13.2%

Under 0.5 Goals3.0%

Exactly 0 Goals2.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score91.7%

Away Team to Score64.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)59.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)40.4%

Home Clean Sheet35.0%

Home Win to Nil32.1%

Away Clean Sheet8.2%

Away Win to Nil5.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.591.7%

Home Over 1.571.2%

Away Over 0.564.9%

Home Over 2.545.5%

Home 3+ Goals45.5%

Away Exactly 136.7%

Away Exactly 035.0%

Away Over 1.528.2%

Home Exactly 225.6%

Home Exactly 120.5%

Away Exactly 219.3%

Away Over 2.59.0%

Away 3+ Goals9.0%

Home Exactly 08.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)94.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away94.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)86.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away86.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)85.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home85.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)72.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away72.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)68.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)52.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away52.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)47.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home47.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)31.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away31.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)27.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home27.2%

Home to win by 3+27.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.8%

Home to win by 121.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.9%

Home to win by 219.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)14.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw13.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)13.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home13.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw9.1%

Away to win by 19.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw7.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)5.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home5.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away4.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.5%

Away to win by 23.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.3%

Away to win by 3+1.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.552.7%

BTTS & Over 2.552.1%

Home & BTTS36.8%

Home & No BTTS32.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.523.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.516.7%

Home & Under 2.516.2%

Draw & BTTS14.2%

Draw & Under 2.510.4%

Away & Over 2.59.4%

Away & BTTS8.6%

BTTS & Under 2.57.5%

Draw & Over 2.56.7%

Away & No BTTS5.3%

Away & Under 2.54.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.579.8%

HT Under 1.552.6%

HT Home Win52.0%

HT Over 1.547.4%

HT/FT Home/Home46.8%

2nd Half More Goals46.3%

HT Draw32.5%

1st Half More Goals31.9%

HT Both Teams Score25.4%

Equal Goals Each Half21.8%

HT Under 0.520.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.4%

HT Away Win15.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.1%

HT/FT Away/Away7.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.0%

HT/FT Away/Home3.8%

HT/FT Home/Away1.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions