UEFA Europa Conference League

Atalanta vs Pafos

Kick-off 20:00 · Thu, Oct 15

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

62% confidence

Atalanta 62.3% Draw 24.6% Pafos 13.1%

Over 2.5 - 48% BTTS - 46%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

87%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

62%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 13.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Atalanta: 9 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

13.9%

Exact-score model probability

Atalanta

W L L L W W

Form 3-0-3 Goals 8:8 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.33

Pafos

D D L W L

Form 1-2-2 Goals 6:7 Scored/game 1.2 Conceded/game 1.4

📈 Probability Breakdown

Atalanta win62.3%

Draw24.6%

Pafos win13.1%

Over 1.5 goals74.4%

Over 2.5 goals47.9%

Over 3.5 goals26.2%

Both teams to score45.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 4.5 Goals

87.9%

Home or Draw (1X)

85.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

85.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)85.5%

Draw No Bet - Home81.5%

Home or Away (12)78.1%

Home Win63.6%

Both Halves Over 0.552.2%

Goal in Both Halves52.2%

Draw or Away (X2)36.4%

Draw21.9%

Exactly 1 Goal19.4%

Draw No Bet - Away18.5%

Away Win14.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals95.2%

Over 0.5 Goals92.5%

Under 4.5 Goals87.9%

Under 3.5 Goals73.9%

Over 1.5 Goals73.0%

1-3 Goals66.3%

2-4 Goals60.9%

Under 2.5 Goals52.1%

Total Goals Even50.3%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Over 2.5 Goals47.9%

2-3 Goals46.9%

1-2 Goals44.6%

3-4 Goals35.8%

Under 1.5 Goals27.0%

Over 3.5 Goals26.1%

4+ Goals26.1%

Exactly 2 Goals25.2%

Exactly 3 Goals21.7%

Over 4.5 Goals12.1%

Under 0.5 Goals7.5%

Exactly 0 Goals7.5%

Over 5.5 Goals4.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score84.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)55.9%

Away Team to Score52.4%

Home Clean Sheet47.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)44.1%

Home Win to Nil40.1%

Away Clean Sheet15.8%

Away Win to Nil8.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.584.2%

Home Over 1.555.1%

Away Over 0.552.4%

Away Exactly 047.6%

Away Exactly 135.3%

Home Exactly 129.1%

Home Over 2.528.2%

Home 3+ Goals28.2%

Home Exactly 226.9%

Away Over 1.517.1%

Home Exactly 015.8%

Away Exactly 213.1%

Away Over 2.54.0%

Away 3+ Goals4.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)92.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away92.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)85.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home85.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)81.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away81.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)63.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)62.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away62.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)37.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home37.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)36.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away36.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw25.8%

Home to win by 125.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.7%

Home to win by 219.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)18.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home18.1%

Home to win by 3+18.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)14.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw10.4%

Away to win by 110.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)7.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home7.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away4.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.2%

Away to win by 23.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.9%

Away to win by 3+0.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.541.8%

Home & No BTTS40.1%

Home & Over 2.537.0%

BTTS & Over 2.533.8%

Home & Under 2.526.7%

Home & BTTS23.6%

Draw & Under 2.517.8%

Draw & BTTS14.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.514.0%

BTTS & Under 2.510.3%

Away & No BTTS8.3%

Away & Under 2.57.7%

Away & Over 2.56.8%

Away & BTTS6.2%

Draw & Over 2.54.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.568.8%

HT Under 1.567.5%

HT Home Win45.4%

2nd Half More Goals43.0%

HT/FT Home/Home40.8%

HT Draw40.5%

HT Over 1.532.5%

HT Under 0.531.2%

1st Half More Goals30.8%

Equal Goals Each Half26.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home20.3%

HT Both Teams Score16.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw14.2%

HT Away Win14.1%

HT/FT Away/Away7.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Away/Home2.5%

HT/FT Home/Away0.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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