Italy · Serie A

Atalanta vs Sassuolo

Kick-off 19:45 · Sun, Aug 23

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

62% confidence

Atalanta 62.1% Draw 21.9% Sassuolo 15.9%

Over 2.5 - 15% BTTS - 24%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

85%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

84%

No Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

76%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-0 at 17.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Sassuolo: 6 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Atalanta 2 wins, 0 draws, Sassuolo 3 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

17.8%

Exact-score model probability

Atalanta

D D L W D L

Form 1-3-2 Goals 6:7 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.17

Sassuolo

L L L W D W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 7:7 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 5

Atalanta 2wins ·0 draws ·Sassuolo 3wins

Atalanta 1-2 SassuoloMar 1, 2026

Atalanta 0-3 SassuoloNov 9, 2025

Atalanta 3-0 SassuoloFeb 17, 2024

Atalanta 2-0 SassuoloAug 20, 2023

Atalanta 0-1 SassuoloFeb 4, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Atalanta win62.1%

Draw21.9%

Sassuolo win15.9%

Over 1.5 goals77.0%

Over 2.5 goals14.6%

Over 3.5 goals30.6%

Both teams to score23.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

91.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

91.6%

Under 3.5 Goals

90.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)72.5%

Home or Away (12)66.6%

Draw or Away (X2)60.9%

Draw No Bet - Home58.7%

Draw No Bet - Away41.3%

Home Win39.1%

Draw33.4%

Both Halves Over 0.533.2%

Goal in Both Halves33.2%

Exactly 1 Goal30.7%

Away Win27.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals99.1%

Under 4.5 Goals96.9%

Under 3.5 Goals90.3%

Over 0.5 Goals82.2%

Under 2.5 Goals75.0%

1-3 Goals72.5%

1-2 Goals57.2%

Total Goals Even51.6%

Over 1.5 Goals51.5%

Under 1.5 Goals48.5%

Total Goals Odd48.4%

2-4 Goals48.4%

2-3 Goals41.8%

Exactly 2 Goals26.5%

Over 2.5 Goals25.0%

3-4 Goals21.9%

Under 0.5 Goals17.8%

Exactly 0 Goals17.8%

Exactly 3 Goals15.3%

Over 3.5 Goals9.7%

4+ Goals9.7%

Over 4.5 Goals3.1%

Over 5.5 Goals0.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

No Both Teams Score (NG)67.0%

Home Team to Score62.1%

Away Team to Score53.2%

Home Clean Sheet46.8%

Away Clean Sheet37.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)33.0%

Home Win to Nil29.0%

Away Win to Nil20.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.562.1%

Away Over 0.553.2%

Away Exactly 046.8%

Home Exactly 037.9%

Home Exactly 136.8%

Away Exactly 135.5%

Home Over 1.525.3%

Home Exactly 217.8%

Away Over 1.517.7%

Away Exactly 213.5%

Home Over 2.57.5%

Home 3+ Goals7.5%

Away Over 2.54.2%

Away 3+ Goals4.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away95.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)91.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home91.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)85.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away85.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)72.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home72.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)60.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away60.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)39.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)27.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw24.4%

Home to win by 124.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.1%

Away to win by 119.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)14.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home14.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw10.6%

Home to win by 210.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)8.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away8.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.5%

Away to win by 26.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)4.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home4.2%

Home to win by 3+4.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.9%

Away to win by 3+1.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.561.9%

Draw & Under 2.530.8%

Home & No BTTS29.0%

Home & Under 2.525.6%

Away & No BTTS20.2%

BTTS & Over 2.519.9%

Away & Under 2.518.6%

Draw & BTTS15.7%

Home & Over 2.513.5%

BTTS & Under 2.513.1%

Home & BTTS10.1%

Away & Over 2.58.9%

Away & BTTS7.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.55.1%

Draw & Over 2.52.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.581.7%

HT Over 0.554.0%

HT Draw53.1%

HT Under 0.546.0%

2nd Half More Goals38.0%

Equal Goals Each Half33.5%

1st Half More Goals28.4%

HT Home Win26.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw25.3%

HT/FT Home/Home21.9%

HT Away Win20.1%

HT Over 1.518.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.0%

HT/FT Away/Away14.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away11.8%

HT Both Teams Score10.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Away/Home1.2%

HT/FT Home/Away0.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions