Italy · Serie A

Atalanta vs Venezia

Kick-off 17:30 · Mon, Oct 12

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

77% confidence

Atalanta 77.1% Draw 15.7% Venezia 7.1%

Over 2.5 - 57% BTTS - 54%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

82%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

77%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 13.5%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Atalanta: 7 points versus 3 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Atalanta 3 wins, 1 draws, Venezia 0 wins in the last 4 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

13.5%

Exact-score model probability

Atalanta

L L L W W D

Form 2-1-3 Goals 5:7 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.17

Venezia

L L L L L W

Form 1-0-5 Goals 6:13 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2.17

Head to head · last 4

Atalanta 3wins ·1 draws ·Venezia 0wins

Atalanta 0-0 VeneziaMar 1, 2025

Atalanta 2-0 VeneziaOct 20, 2024

Atalanta 3-1 VeneziaApr 23, 2022

Atalanta 4-0 VeneziaNov 30, 2021

📈 Probability Breakdown

Atalanta win77.1%

Draw15.7%

Venezia win7.1%

Over 1.5 goals79.3%

Over 2.5 goals57.4%

Over 3.5 goals33.9%

Both teams to score54.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

89.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

89.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

89.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)89.1%

Draw No Bet - Home86.7%

Home or Away (12)81.4%

Home Win70.6%

Both Halves Over 0.556.6%

Goal in Both Halves56.6%

Draw or Away (X2)29.4%

Draw18.6%

Exactly 1 Goal16.8%

Draw No Bet - Away13.3%

Away Win10.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.0%

Under 5.5 Goals93.4%

Under 4.5 Goals84.5%

Over 1.5 Goals77.2%

Under 3.5 Goals68.8%

1-3 Goals62.8%

2-4 Goals61.7%

Over 2.5 Goals53.4%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 2.5 Goals46.6%

2-3 Goals46.0%

1-2 Goals40.5%

3-4 Goals38.0%

Over 3.5 Goals31.2%

4+ Goals31.2%

Exactly 2 Goals23.7%

Under 1.5 Goals22.8%

Exactly 3 Goals22.3%

Over 4.5 Goals15.5%

Over 5.5 Goals6.6%

Under 0.5 Goals6.0%

Exactly 0 Goals6.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score88.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)56.1%

Home Clean Sheet50.1%

Away Team to Score49.9%

Home Win to Nil44.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)43.9%

Away Clean Sheet11.9%

Away Win to Nil5.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.588.0%

Home Over 1.562.7%

Away Exactly 050.1%

Away Over 0.549.9%

Home Over 2.535.7%

Home 3+ Goals35.7%

Away Exactly 134.6%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 125.4%

Away Over 1.515.3%

Away Exactly 212.0%

Home Exactly 011.9%

Away Over 2.53.3%

Away 3+ Goals3.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)89.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)89.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home89.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away89.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)75.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away75.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)70.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)54.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away54.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)46.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home46.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)29.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away29.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw24.6%

Home to win by 124.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)24.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home24.5%

Home to win by 3+24.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw21.5%

Home to win by 221.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw13.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)10.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)10.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home10.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw8.0%

Away to win by 18.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.3%

Away to win by 22.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.6%

Away to win by 3+0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.544.4%

Home & No BTTS44.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.537.7%

BTTS & Over 2.535.1%

Home & BTTS26.5%

Home & Under 2.526.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.518.3%

Draw & Under 2.514.8%

Draw & BTTS12.6%

BTTS & Under 2.58.8%

Away & No BTTS5.9%

Away & Under 2.55.6%

Away & Over 2.55.3%

Away & BTTS4.9%

Draw & Over 2.53.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.571.9%

HT Under 1.563.8%

HT Home Win51.1%

HT/FT Home/Home47.0%

2nd Half More Goals43.9%

HT Draw37.2%

HT Over 1.536.2%

1st Half More Goals31.2%

HT Under 0.528.1%

Equal Goals Each Half24.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home20.9%

HT Both Teams Score16.5%

HT Away Win11.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw11.8%

HT/FT Away/Away5.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Away/Home2.7%

HT/FT Home/Away0.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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