Spain · La Liga

Athletic Club vs Elche

Kick-off 17:30 · Sat, Sep 12

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

58% confidence

Athletic Club 57.6% Draw 23.0% Elche 19.4%

Over 2.5 - 52% BTTS - 81%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

81%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

81%

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

76%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 8.9%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Athletic Club: 7 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.9%

Exact-score model probability

Athletic Club

W W L L L D

Form 2-1-3 Goals 9:10 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.67

Elche

L L L D D W

Form 1-2-3 Goals 7:13 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 2.17

Head to head · last 5

Athletic Club 3wins ·1 draws ·Elche 1wins

Athletic Club 2-1 ElcheFeb 20, 2026

Athletic Club 0-0 ElcheOct 19, 2025

Athletic Club 0-1 ElcheMay 28, 2023

Athletic Club 4-1 ElcheSep 11, 2022

Athletic Club 2-1 ElcheApr 3, 2022

📈 Probability Breakdown

Athletic Club win57.6%

Draw23.0%

Elche win19.4%

Over 1.5 goals76.0%

Over 2.5 goals51.8%

Over 3.5 goals29.6%

Both teams to score80.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

90.8%

Home Over 0.5

90.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

90.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.8%

Home or Draw (1X)77.6%

Draw No Bet - Home72.3%

Both Halves Over 0.572.2%

Goal in Both Halves72.2%

Home Win58.4%

Draw or Away (X2)41.5%

Draw No Bet - Away27.7%

Away Win22.4%

Draw19.1%

Exactly 1 Goal8.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.8%

Over 1.5 Goals89.5%

Under 5.5 Goals81.1%

Over 2.5 Goals73.6%

Under 4.5 Goals66.2%

2-4 Goals55.6%

Over 3.5 Goals53.3%

4+ Goals53.3%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals46.7%

1-3 Goals44.5%

3-4 Goals39.8%

2-3 Goals36.2%

Over 4.5 Goals33.8%

Under 2.5 Goals26.4%

1-2 Goals24.2%

Exactly 3 Goals20.3%

Over 5.5 Goals18.9%

Exactly 2 Goals15.9%

Under 1.5 Goals10.5%

Under 0.5 Goals2.2%

Exactly 0 Goals2.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score90.8%

Away Team to Score76.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)69.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)30.6%

Home Clean Sheet23.6%

Home Win to Nil21.4%

Away Clean Sheet9.2%

Away Win to Nil7.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.590.8%

Away Over 0.576.4%

Home Over 1.568.9%

Home Over 2.542.7%

Home 3+ Goals42.7%

Away Over 1.542.3%

Away Exactly 134.0%

Home Exactly 226.2%

Away Exactly 224.6%

Away Exactly 023.6%

Home Exactly 121.9%

Away Over 2.517.7%

Away 3+ Goals17.7%

Home Exactly 09.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)90.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away90.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)90.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home90.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)79.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away79.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)77.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home77.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)62.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away62.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)58.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)41.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away41.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)37.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home37.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)22.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.0%

Home to win by 121.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)20.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home20.3%

Home to win by 3+20.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.2%

Home to win by 217.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw12.7%

Away to win by 112.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)9.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away9.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)9.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home9.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.3%

Away to win by 26.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.4%

Away to win by 3+3.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.561.9%

Home & Over 2.547.1%

Home & BTTS37.0%

Home & No BTTS21.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.518.9%

Away & Over 2.517.0%

Draw & BTTS17.0%

Away & BTTS15.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.7%

Home & Under 2.511.3%

Draw & Under 2.59.6%

Draw & Over 2.59.5%

BTTS & Under 2.57.5%

Away & No BTTS7.0%

Away & Under 2.55.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.582.2%

HT Over 1.551.5%

HT Under 1.548.5%

2nd Half More Goals47.1%

HT Home Win45.4%

HT/FT Home/Home38.4%

HT Draw32.6%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT Both Teams Score31.5%

HT Away Win22.0%

Equal Goals Each Half20.8%

HT Under 0.517.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.9%

HT/FT Away/Away12.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Away/Home4.1%

HT/FT Home/Away2.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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