Spain · La Liga

Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad

Full time · 2:1

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

50% confidence

Athletic Club 49.8% Draw 25.5% Real Sociedad 24.7%

Over 2.5 - 53% BTTS - 87%

✓ Pick was correct (2:1)

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

87%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

78%

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 6.7%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Real Sociedad: 9 points versus 15 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.7%

Exact-score model probability

Athletic Club

W L D D D W

Form 2-3-1 Goals 9:4 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.67

Real Sociedad

W W W W L W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 16:12 Scored/game 2.67 Conceded/game 2

Head to head · last 5

Athletic Club 2wins ·2 draws ·Real Sociedad 1wins

Athletic Club 1-1 Real SociedadFeb 1, 2026

Athletic Club 2-3 Real SociedadNov 1, 2025

Athletic Club 0-0 Real SociedadMay 4, 2025

Athletic Club 1-0 Real SociedadNov 24, 2024

Athletic Club 2-1 Real SociedadJan 13, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Athletic Club win49.8%

Draw25.5%

Real Sociedad win24.7%

Over 1.5 goals77.7%

Over 2.5 goals53.3%

Over 3.5 goals31.0%

Both teams to score86.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

88.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

88.1%

HT Over 0.5

88.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)82.6%

Both Halves Over 0.581.6%

Goal in Both Halves81.6%

Home or Draw (1X)76.0%

Draw No Bet - Home71.3%

Home Win58.8%

Draw or Away (X2)40.9%

Draw No Bet - Away28.7%

Away Win23.7%

Draw17.1%

Exactly 1 Goal4.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.8%

Over 1.5 Goals94.7%

Over 2.5 Goals84.8%

Over 3.5 Goals69.3%

4+ Goals69.3%

Under 5.5 Goals66.5%

Over 4.5 Goals50.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 4.5 Goals49.1%

2-4 Goals43.7%

3-4 Goals33.9%

Over 5.5 Goals33.5%

Under 3.5 Goals30.7%

1-3 Goals29.5%

2-3 Goals25.4%

Exactly 3 Goals15.5%

Under 2.5 Goals15.2%

1-2 Goals14.0%

Exactly 2 Goals9.8%

Under 1.5 Goals5.3%

Under 0.5 Goals1.2%

Exactly 0 Goals0.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.1%

Away Team to Score84.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)79.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)20.6%

Home Clean Sheet15.6%

Home Win to Nil14.7%

Away Clean Sheet5.6%

Away Win to Nil4.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.1%

Away Over 0.584.1%

Home Over 1.577.9%

Away Over 1.555.2%

Home Over 2.554.6%

Home 3+ Goals54.6%

Away Exactly 128.9%

Away Over 2.528.4%

Away 3+ Goals28.4%

Away Exactly 226.8%

Home Exactly 223.3%

Home Exactly 116.2%

Away Exactly 015.6%

Home Exactly 05.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)94.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away94.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)88.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home88.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)87.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away87.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)76.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away76.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)76.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home76.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)59.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away59.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)58.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)40.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away40.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)40.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home40.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)23.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)23.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home23.6%

Home to win by 3+23.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.8%

Home to win by 118.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.4%

Home to win by 216.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)12.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw12.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home12.1%

Away to win by 112.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)11.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away11.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.8%

Away to win by 26.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)5.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home5.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.8%

Away to win by 3+4.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.574.7%

Home & Over 2.552.7%

Home & BTTS44.2%

Away & Over 2.520.6%

Away & BTTS19.0%

Draw & BTTS16.2%

Home & No BTTS14.7%

Draw & Over 2.511.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.510.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.1%

Home & Under 2.56.2%

Draw & Under 2.55.6%

Away & No BTTS4.7%

BTTS & Under 2.54.7%

Away & Under 2.53.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.1%

HT Over 1.562.9%

2nd Half More Goals49.1%

HT Home Win47.3%

HT Both Teams Score41.2%

HT/FT Home/Home39.7%

HT Under 1.537.1%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw28.6%

HT Away Win24.1%

Equal Goals Each Half18.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.4%

HT/FT Away/Away14.1%

HT Under 0.511.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Away/Home5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Away2.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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