Spain · La Liga

Athletic Club vs Sevilla

Kick-off 16:00 · Sat, Aug 22

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

54% confidence

Athletic Club 53.7% Draw 24.4% Sevilla 21.8%

Over 2.5 - 47% BTTS - 62%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ AIs disagree

65%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Sevilla: 4 points versus 12 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11%

Exact-score model probability

Athletic Club

L D L L W L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 9:13 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 2.17

Sevilla

W L L W W W

Form 4-0-2 Goals 8:6 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 5

Athletic Club 3wins ·1 draws ·Sevilla 1wins

Athletic Club 1-2 SevillaJan 24, 2026

Athletic Club 3-2 SevillaAug 17, 2025

Athletic Club 1-0 SevillaMar 16, 2025

Athletic Club 1-1 SevillaSep 29, 2024

Athletic Club 2-0 SevillaMay 19, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Athletic Club win53.7%

Draw24.4%

Sevilla win21.8%

Over 1.5 goals72.3%

Over 2.5 goals47.1%

Over 3.5 goals25.5%

Both teams to score61.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

90.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

90.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

86.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)76.6%

Home or Draw (1X)76.0%

Draw No Bet - Home68.7%

Both Halves Over 0.557.8%

Goal in Both Halves57.8%

Home Win52.6%

Draw or Away (X2)47.4%

Draw No Bet - Away31.3%

Away Win24.0%

Draw23.4%

Exactly 1 Goal16.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.4%

Under 5.5 Goals92.7%

Under 4.5 Goals83.4%

Over 1.5 Goals78.3%

Under 3.5 Goals67.3%

1-3 Goals61.7%

2-4 Goals61.7%

Over 2.5 Goals55.1%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

2-3 Goals45.6%

Under 2.5 Goals44.9%

1-2 Goals39.3%

3-4 Goals38.5%

Over 3.5 Goals32.7%

4+ Goals32.7%

Exactly 2 Goals23.2%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Under 1.5 Goals21.7%

Over 4.5 Goals16.6%

Over 5.5 Goals7.3%

Under 0.5 Goals5.6%

Exactly 0 Goals5.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score82.9%

Away Team to Score67.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)55.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)44.2%

Home Clean Sheet32.7%

Home Win to Nil27.1%

Away Clean Sheet17.1%

Away Win to Nil11.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.582.9%

Away Over 0.567.3%

Home Over 1.552.7%

Away Exactly 136.5%

Away Exactly 032.7%

Away Over 1.530.8%

Home Exactly 130.2%

Home Exactly 226.7%

Home Over 2.526.1%

Home 3+ Goals26.1%

Away Exactly 220.4%

Home Exactly 017.1%

Away Over 2.510.3%

Away 3+ Goals10.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)90.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home90.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)86.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away86.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)76.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home76.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)70.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away70.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)52.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)47.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away47.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)29.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home29.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)24.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw23.4%

Home to win by 123.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.1%

Home to win by 216.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.8%

Away to win by 114.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)13.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home13.1%

Home to win by 3+13.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)9.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away9.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.4%

Away to win by 26.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home4.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.8%

Away to win by 3+2.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.544.8%

Home & Over 2.534.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.533.9%

Home & No BTTS27.1%

Home & BTTS25.5%

Home & Under 2.518.6%

Draw & BTTS17.8%

Draw & Under 2.516.6%

Away & Over 2.514.3%

Away & BTTS12.5%

Away & No BTTS11.5%

BTTS & Under 2.511.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.3%

Away & Under 2.59.7%

Draw & Over 2.56.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.572.7%

HT Under 1.562.7%

2nd Half More Goals44.2%

HT Draw39.4%

HT Home Win39.3%

HT Over 1.537.3%

HT/FT Home/Home32.8%

1st Half More Goals31.3%

HT Under 0.527.3%

Equal Goals Each Half24.6%

HT Both Teams Score21.7%

HT Away Win21.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw13.6%

HT/FT Away/Away13.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Away/Home2.9%

HT/FT Home/Away1.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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