USA · Major League Soccer

Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC

Kick-off 00:30 · Sun, Sep 27

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

52% confidence

Atlanta United FC 27.0% Draw 21.0% New York City FC 52.0%

Over 2.5 - 79% BTTS - 76%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

79%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

76%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 7.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Atlanta United FC: 7 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.9%

Exact-score model probability

Atlanta United FC

W D L L L W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 6:8 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.33

New York City FC

W L D D D L

Form 1-3-2 Goals 6:6 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Atlanta United FC win27.0%

Draw21.0%

New York City FC win52.0%

Over 1.5 goals92.9%

Over 2.5 goals78.6%

Over 3.5 goals60.0%

Both teams to score76.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

91.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

91.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home

91.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.6%

Both Halves Over 0.576.2%

Goal in Both Halves76.2%

Draw or Away (X2)72.0%

Draw No Bet - Away65.4%

Away Win52.7%

Home or Draw (1X)47.2%

Draw No Bet - Home34.6%

Home Win27.9%

Draw19.3%

Exactly 1 Goal6.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.4%

Over 1.5 Goals91.9%

Over 2.5 Goals78.5%

Under 5.5 Goals75.8%

Over 3.5 Goals59.9%

4+ Goals59.9%

Under 4.5 Goals59.6%

2-4 Goals51.5%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 4.5 Goals40.4%

Under 3.5 Goals40.1%

1-3 Goals38.5%

3-4 Goals38.1%

2-3 Goals32.0%

Over 5.5 Goals24.2%

Under 2.5 Goals21.5%

1-2 Goals19.8%

Exactly 3 Goals18.6%

Exactly 2 Goals13.4%

Under 1.5 Goals8.1%

Under 0.5 Goals1.6%

Exactly 0 Goals1.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score91.0%

Home Team to Score82.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)75.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)24.7%

Away Clean Sheet17.3%

Away Win to Nil15.8%

Home Clean Sheet8.9%

Home Win to Nil7.3%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.591.0%

Home Over 0.582.6%

Away Over 1.569.5%

Home Over 1.552.2%

Away Over 2.543.5%

Away 3+ Goals43.5%

Home Exactly 130.3%

Home Exactly 226.6%

Away Exactly 226.0%

Home Over 2.525.7%

Home 3+ Goals25.7%

Away Exactly 121.5%

Home Exactly 017.3%

Away Exactly 08.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.3%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)94.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away94.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)91.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home91.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)86.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away86.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)82.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home82.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)72.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away72.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)66.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home66.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)52.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)47.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home47.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)33.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away33.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)27.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.7%

Away to win by 119.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)17.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away17.6%

Away to win by 3+17.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw15.4%

Away to win by 215.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.3%

Home to win by 114.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)13.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home13.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw9.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw8.1%

Home to win by 28.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)8.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away8.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)5.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home5.5%

Home to win by 3+5.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw4.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away3.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.568.7%

Away & Over 2.544.5%

Away & BTTS37.0%

Home & Over 2.522.8%

Home & BTTS20.5%

Draw & BTTS17.8%

Away & No BTTS15.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.514.8%

Draw & Over 2.511.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.8%

Away & Under 2.58.2%

Draw & Under 2.58.1%

Home & No BTTS7.3%

BTTS & Under 2.56.5%

Home & Under 2.55.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.584.7%

HT Over 1.556.0%

2nd Half More Goals47.9%

HT Under 1.544.0%

HT Away Win42.3%

HT Both Teams Score36.2%

HT/FT Away/Away34.3%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw31.5%

HT Home Win26.2%

Equal Goals Each Half19.9%

HT/FT Home/Home16.6%

HT Under 0.515.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home8.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Away4.3%

HT/FT Away/Home2.7%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners93.0%

Under 10.5 Corners87.6%

Under 9.5 Corners79.5%

Under 8.5 Corners68.5%

Away Most Corners61.9%

Away Over 4.5 Corners43.6%

Over 8.5 Corners31.5%

Home Most Corners24.7%

Over 9.5 Corners20.5%

Home Over 4.5 Corners18.5%

Over 10.5 Corners12.4%

Over 11.5 Corners7.0%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards86.1%

Over 3.5 Cards71.1%

Under 5.5 Cards64.5%

Over 4.5 Cards53.0%

Under 4.5 Cards47.0%

Over 5.5 Cards35.5%

Under 3.5 Cards28.9%

Over 0.5 Red Cards19.3%

Under 2.5 Cards13.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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