USA · Major League Soccer

Atlanta United FC vs Sporting Kansas City

Kick-off 00:00 · Mon, Aug 24

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

85% confidence

Atlanta United FC 85.2% Draw 8.5% Sporting Kansas City 6.3%

Over 2.5 - 93% BTTS - 76%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

93%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

85%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 6.5%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Atlanta United FC: 7 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.5%

Exact-score model probability

Atlanta United FC

W W L L D L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 9:12 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 2

Sporting Kansas City

D L L L W L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 5:13 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 2.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Atlanta United FC win85.2%

Draw8.5%

Sporting Kansas City win6.3%

Over 1.5 goals98.3%

Over 2.5 goals93.2%

Over 3.5 goals83.6%

Both teams to score75.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Over 1.5

89.9%

Home or Draw (1X)

89.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

89.7%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home92.9%

Home or Draw (1X)89.7%

Both Halves Over 0.589.5%

Goal in Both Halves89.5%

Home or Away (12)88.2%

Home Win82.0%

Draw or Away (X2)14.0%

Draw7.7%

Draw No Bet - Away7.1%

Away Win6.2%

Exactly 1 Goal1.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.7%

Over 1.5 Goals94.1%

Over 2.5 Goals89.5%

Over 3.5 Goals80.2%

4+ Goals80.2%

Over 4.5 Goals66.5%

Over 5.5 Goals50.3%

Under 5.5 Goals49.7%

Total Goals Even48.0%

Total Goals Odd47.9%

Under 4.5 Goals33.5%

2-4 Goals27.6%

3-4 Goals22.9%

Under 3.5 Goals19.8%

1-3 Goals15.5%

2-3 Goals13.9%

Under 2.5 Goals10.5%

Exactly 3 Goals9.2%

1-2 Goals6.2%

Under 1.5 Goals5.9%

Exactly 2 Goals4.7%

Under 0.5 Goals4.3%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

Away Team to Score73.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)72.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)27.8%

Home Clean Sheet22.9%

Home Win to Nil22.7%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 0.573.1%

Away Over 1.540.2%

Away Exactly 132.8%

Away Exactly 223.5%

Away Exactly 022.9%

Away Over 2.516.7%

Away 3+ Goals16.7%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)89.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home89.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)84.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)82.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)73.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away73.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)69.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home69.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)58.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away58.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)54.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home54.0%

Home to win by 3+54.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)42.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away42.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)37.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home37.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)26.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away26.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)22.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home22.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.7%

Home to win by 215.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw14.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)14.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away14.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.3%

Home to win by 112.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)11.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home11.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw11.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)6.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw3.9%

Away to win by 13.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.6%

Away to win by 21.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.7%

Away to win by 3+0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.578.1%

BTTS & Over 2.570.5%

Home & BTTS59.3%

Home & No BTTS22.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.519.0%

Draw & BTTS7.5%

Draw & Over 2.55.8%

Away & Over 2.55.6%

Away & BTTS5.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.54.8%

Home & Under 2.53.9%

Draw & Under 2.52.0%

BTTS & Under 2.51.7%

Away & No BTTS0.8%

Away & Under 2.50.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.593.0%

HT Over 1.574.5%

HT Home Win69.8%

HT/FT Home/Home66.6%

2nd Half More Goals51.2%

HT Both Teams Score41.2%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.525.5%

HT Draw19.4%

Equal Goals Each Half16.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.4%

HT Away Win10.8%

HT Under 0.57.0%

HT/FT Away/Home4.9%

HT/FT Away/Away3.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.9%

HT/FT Home/Away0.8%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners77.0%

Under 10.5 Corners66.6%

Over 8.5 Corners58.7%

Under 9.5 Corners54.4%

Home Over 4.5 Corners49.9%

Away Over 4.5 Corners49.9%

Over 9.5 Corners45.6%

Home Most Corners43.4%

Away Most Corners43.4%

Under 8.5 Corners41.3%

Over 10.5 Corners33.4%

Over 11.5 Corners23.0%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards78.5%

Under 5.5 Cards75.9%

Over 3.5 Cards59.8%

Under 4.5 Cards59.6%

Over 4.5 Cards40.4%

Under 3.5 Cards40.2%

Over 5.5 Cards24.1%

Under 2.5 Cards21.5%

Over 0.5 Red Cards16.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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