Mexico · Liga MX

Atlante FC vs Toluca

Kick-off 00:00 · Sun, Aug 16

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

45% confidence

Atlante FC 44.9% Draw 21.4% Toluca 33.7%

Over 2.5 - 80% BTTS - 79%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 7.2%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Toluca: 4 points versus 6 across the last 3 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.87 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.2%

Exact-score model probability

Atlante FC

W D L

Form 1-1-1 Goals 5:5 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.67

Toluca

W L W L L

Form 2-0-3 Goals 6:6 Scored/game 1.2 Conceded/game 1.2

📈 Probability Breakdown

Atlante FC win44.9%

Draw21.4%

Toluca win33.7%

Over 1.5 goals93.6%

Over 2.5 goals80.2%

Over 3.5 goals62.3%

Both teams to score78.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

91.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

91.6%

Home Team to Score

89.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.2%

Both Halves Over 0.577.5%

Goal in Both Halves77.5%

Home or Draw (1X)65.4%

Draw No Bet - Home56.9%

Draw or Away (X2)54.3%

Home Win45.7%

Draw No Bet - Away43.1%

Away Win34.5%

Draw19.7%

Exactly 1 Goal5.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.6%

Over 1.5 Goals92.7%

Over 2.5 Goals80.2%

Under 5.5 Goals73.8%

Over 3.5 Goals62.2%

4+ Goals62.2%

Under 4.5 Goals57.1%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-4 Goals49.9%

Over 4.5 Goals42.9%

Under 3.5 Goals37.8%

3-4 Goals37.3%

1-3 Goals36.4%

2-3 Goals30.5%

Over 5.5 Goals26.2%

Under 2.5 Goals19.8%

1-2 Goals18.4%

Exactly 3 Goals18.0%

Exactly 2 Goals12.5%

Under 1.5 Goals7.3%

Under 0.5 Goals1.4%

Exactly 0 Goals1.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score89.9%

Away Team to Score86.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)77.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)22.3%

Home Clean Sheet13.5%

Home Win to Nil12.2%

Away Clean Sheet10.0%

Away Win to Nil8.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.589.9%

Away Over 0.586.4%

Home Over 1.566.8%

Away Over 1.559.3%

Home Over 2.540.3%

Home 3+ Goals40.3%

Away Over 2.532.3%

Away 3+ Goals32.3%

Away Exactly 127.0%

Away Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 226.5%

Home Exactly 123.1%

Away Exactly 013.5%

Home Exactly 010.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)94.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away94.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)91.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home91.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)86.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away86.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)81.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home81.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)72.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away72.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)65.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home65.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)54.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away54.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)45.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)34.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)27.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home27.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)18.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away18.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.5%

Home to win by 118.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.1%

Away to win by 116.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)13.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home13.7%

Home to win by 3+13.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.4%

Home to win by 213.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw10.2%

Away to win by 210.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)8.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away8.3%

Away to win by 3+8.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)5.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home5.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.7%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.571.5%

Home & Over 2.538.9%

Home & BTTS33.5%

Away & Over 2.529.1%

Away & BTTS25.9%

Draw & BTTS18.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.513.5%

Home & No BTTS12.2%

Draw & Over 2.512.1%

Away & No BTTS8.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.7%

Draw & Under 2.57.6%

Home & Under 2.56.7%

BTTS & Under 2.56.2%

Away & Under 2.55.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.6%

HT Over 1.557.6%

2nd Half More Goals48.2%

HT Under 1.542.4%

HT Both Teams Score38.3%

HT Home Win37.9%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw31.4%

HT Away Win30.7%

HT/FT Home/Home29.0%

HT/FT Away/Away21.1%

Equal Goals Each Half19.5%

HT Under 0.514.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home4.1%

HT/FT Home/Away3.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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