Mexico · Liga MX

Atlas vs Tigres UANL

Kick-off 04:10 · Sun, Aug 16

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

65% confidence

Atlas 64.8% Draw 15.7% Tigres UANL 19.5%

Over 2.5 - 91% BTTS - 84%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 5.9%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Atlas: 6 points versus 4 across the last 5 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.80 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.9%

Exact-score model probability

Atlas

L W W L L

Form 2-0-3 Goals 6:8 Scored/game 1.2 Conceded/game 1.6

Tigres UANL

L D L L W

Form 1-1-3 Goals 8:11 Scored/game 1.6 Conceded/game 2.2

📈 Probability Breakdown

Atlas win64.8%

Draw15.7%

Tigres UANL win19.5%

Over 1.5 goals97.5%

Over 2.5 goals90.5%

Over 3.5 goals78.6%

Both teams to score83.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

91.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

90.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

90.6%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.586.6%

Goal in Both Halves86.6%

Home or Away (12)84.3%

Home or Draw (1X)79.4%

Draw No Bet - Home76.6%

Home Win64.6%

Draw or Away (X2)34.5%

Draw No Bet - Away23.4%

Away Win19.7%

Draw14.8%

Exactly 1 Goal2.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.7%

Over 1.5 Goals96.2%

Over 2.5 Goals89.7%

Over 3.5 Goals77.9%

4+ Goals77.9%

Over 4.5 Goals61.9%

Under 5.5 Goals55.4%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Over 5.5 Goals44.6%

Under 4.5 Goals38.1%

2-4 Goals34.4%

3-4 Goals27.8%

Under 3.5 Goals22.1%

1-3 Goals20.8%

2-3 Goals18.4%

Exactly 3 Goals11.8%

Under 2.5 Goals10.3%

1-2 Goals9.0%

Exactly 2 Goals6.6%

Under 1.5 Goals3.8%

Under 0.5 Goals1.3%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.9%

Away Team to Score85.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)82.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)17.3%

Home Clean Sheet13.6%

Home Win to Nil13.2%

Away Clean Sheet3.3%

Away Win to Nil2.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.9%

Away Over 0.585.5%

Home Over 1.584.7%

Home Over 2.565.6%

Home 3+ Goals65.6%

Away Over 1.558.4%

Away Over 2.531.6%

Away 3+ Goals31.6%

Away Exactly 127.0%

Away Exactly 226.8%

Home Exactly 219.1%

Away Exactly 013.6%

Home Exactly 111.2%

Home Exactly 03.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)95.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)90.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away90.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)89.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home89.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)81.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away81.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)79.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home79.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)68.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away68.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)64.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)51.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away51.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)47.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home47.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)34.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away34.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)30.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home30.5%

Home to win by 3+30.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)19.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.4%

Home to win by 117.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)17.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home17.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.7%

Home to win by 216.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw13.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw10.1%

Away to win by 110.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)9.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away9.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw8.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)8.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home8.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.6%

Away to win by 25.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw5.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.0%

Away to win by 3+4.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)3.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home3.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.579.6%

Home & Over 2.560.4%

Home & BTTS51.4%

Away & Over 2.518.0%

Away & BTTS16.9%

Draw & BTTS14.3%

Home & No BTTS13.2%

Draw & Over 2.511.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.56.4%

Home & Under 2.54.2%

Draw & Under 2.53.5%

BTTS & Under 2.53.0%

Away & No BTTS2.8%

Away & Under 2.51.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.2%

HT Over 1.569.9%

HT Home Win52.5%

2nd Half More Goals50.4%

HT Both Teams Score46.4%

HT/FT Home/Home45.5%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.530.1%

HT Draw25.7%

HT Away Win21.8%

Equal Goals Each Half17.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.3%

HT/FT Away/Away11.7%

HT Under 0.58.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.6%

HT/FT Away/Home5.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Home/Away2.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions