Spain · La Liga

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona

Full time · 1:2

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

41% confidence

Atletico Madrid 35.3% Draw 23.9% Barcelona 40.7%

Over 2.5 - 63% BTTS - 85%

✓ Pick was correct (1:2)

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

85%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

84%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

76%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 6.5%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Atletico Madrid: 13 points versus 12 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.5%

Exact-score model probability

Atletico Madrid

L W W D W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 7:3 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 0.5

Barcelona

W W L L W W

Form 4-0-2 Goals 21:10 Scored/game 3.5 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 5

Atletico Madrid 1wins ·0 draws ·Barcelona 4wins

Atletico Madrid 1-2 BarcelonaApr 4, 2026

Atletico Madrid 1-3 BarcelonaDec 2, 2025

Atletico Madrid 2-4 BarcelonaMar 16, 2025

Atletico Madrid 2-1 BarcelonaDec 21, 2024

Atletico Madrid 0-3 BarcelonaMar 17, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Atletico Madrid win35.3%

Draw23.9%

Barcelona win40.7%

Over 1.5 goals83.9%

Over 2.5 goals63.0%

Over 3.5 goals40.8%

Both teams to score84.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

90.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

90.3%

HT Over 0.5

88.9%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.582.9%

Goal in Both Halves82.9%

Home or Away (12)81.9%

Home or Draw (1X)70.1%

Draw No Bet - Home63.8%

Home Win52.3%

Draw or Away (X2)47.5%

Draw No Bet - Away36.2%

Away Win29.6%

Draw17.9%

Exactly 1 Goal3.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.0%

Over 1.5 Goals95.3%

Over 2.5 Goals86.3%

Over 3.5 Goals71.6%

4+ Goals71.6%

Under 5.5 Goals63.9%

Over 4.5 Goals53.7%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Under 4.5 Goals46.3%

2-4 Goals41.6%

Over 5.5 Goals36.1%

3-4 Goals32.6%

Under 3.5 Goals28.4%

1-3 Goals27.4%

2-3 Goals23.7%

Exactly 3 Goals14.7%

Under 2.5 Goals13.7%

1-2 Goals12.7%

Exactly 2 Goals9.0%

Under 1.5 Goals4.7%

Under 0.5 Goals1.0%

Exactly 0 Goals0.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score93.5%

Away Team to Score87.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)82.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)17.8%

Home Clean Sheet12.0%

Home Win to Nil11.3%

Away Clean Sheet6.3%

Away Win to Nil5.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.593.5%

Away Over 0.587.7%

Home Over 1.576.2%

Away Over 1.562.2%

Home Over 2.552.1%

Home 3+ Goals52.1%

Away Over 2.535.3%

Away 3+ Goals35.3%

Away Exactly 226.9%

Away Exactly 125.5%

Home Exactly 224.0%

Home Exactly 117.3%

Away Exactly 012.0%

Home Exactly 06.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)92.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home92.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)90.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away90.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)84.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home84.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)80.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away80.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)70.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home70.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)65.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away65.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)52.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)47.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away47.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)34.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home34.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)29.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)19.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home19.3%

Home to win by 3+19.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.2%

Home to win by 118.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)15.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away15.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.8%

Home to win by 214.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.9%

Away to win by 113.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw9.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)9.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home9.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.6%

Away to win by 28.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)7.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away7.1%

Away to win by 3+7.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.7%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.577.8%

Home & Over 2.547.3%

Home & BTTS41.0%

Away & Over 2.526.3%

Away & BTTS24.1%

Draw & BTTS17.1%

Draw & Over 2.512.7%

Home & No BTTS11.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.59.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.5%

Away & No BTTS5.5%

Draw & Under 2.55.2%

Home & Under 2.55.0%

BTTS & Under 2.54.4%

Away & Under 2.53.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.9%

HT Over 1.564.5%

2nd Half More Goals49.4%

HT Both Teams Score43.7%

HT Home Win43.1%

HT Under 1.535.5%

HT/FT Home/Home34.5%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw28.7%

HT Away Win28.2%

Equal Goals Each Half18.2%

HT/FT Away/Away18.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.1%

HT Under 0.511.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Away/Home4.9%

HT/FT Home/Away3.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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