UEFA Champions League

Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München

Kick-off 21:00 · Tue, Nov 3

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

81% confidence

Atletico Madrid 80.6% Draw 12.6% Bayern München 6.8%

Over 2.5 - 78% BTTS - 59%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

93%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

81%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 8.7%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Atletico Madrid: 16 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.7%

Exact-score model probability

Atletico Madrid

W W D W W W

Form 5-1-0 Goals 9:2 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.33

Bayern München

D W D W D D

Form 2-4-0 Goals 18:11 Scored/game 3 Conceded/game 1.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

Atletico Madrid win80.6%

Draw12.6%

Bayern München win6.8%

Over 1.5 goals92.5%

Over 2.5 goals78.3%

Over 3.5 goals59.5%

Both teams to score59.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

92.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

92.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

92.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)92.0%

Draw No Bet - Home91.6%

Home or Away (12)88.1%

Home Win80.7%

Both Halves Over 0.576.1%

Goal in Both Halves76.1%

Draw or Away (X2)18.7%

Draw11.3%

Draw No Bet - Away8.4%

Away Win7.4%

Exactly 1 Goal6.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.8%

Over 1.5 Goals91.4%

Over 2.5 Goals77.9%

Under 5.5 Goals76.5%

Under 4.5 Goals60.3%

Over 3.5 Goals59.2%

4+ Goals59.2%

2-4 Goals51.7%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Under 3.5 Goals40.8%

Over 4.5 Goals39.7%

1-3 Goals38.7%

3-4 Goals38.2%

2-3 Goals32.2%

Over 5.5 Goals23.5%

Under 2.5 Goals22.1%

1-2 Goals20.0%

Exactly 3 Goals18.7%

Exactly 2 Goals13.5%

Under 1.5 Goals8.6%

Under 0.5 Goals2.2%

Exactly 0 Goals1.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.4%

Away Team to Score60.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)58.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)41.9%

Home Clean Sheet38.8%

Home Win to Nil37.3%

Away Clean Sheet4.0%

Away Win to Nil2.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.4%

Home Over 1.582.6%

Home Over 2.561.9%

Home 3+ Goals61.9%

Away Over 0.560.6%

Away Exactly 038.8%

Away Exactly 136.5%

Away Over 1.524.1%

Home Exactly 220.7%

Away Exactly 217.2%

Home Exactly 112.8%

Away Over 2.56.9%

Away 3+ Goals6.9%

Home Exactly 04.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)93.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)92.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home92.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)86.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away86.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)80.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)73.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away73.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)63.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home63.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)56.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away56.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)43.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home43.1%

Home to win by 3+43.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)36.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away36.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)25.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home25.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw20.0%

Home to win by 220.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)18.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away18.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.6%

Home to win by 117.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)13.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home13.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw12.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)7.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw7.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)5.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home5.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.1%

Away to win by 15.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.7%

Away to win by 21.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.5%

Away to win by 3+0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.567.6%

BTTS & Over 2.553.4%

Home & BTTS43.4%

Home & No BTTS37.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.524.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.516.8%

Home & Under 2.513.1%

Draw & BTTS9.7%

Draw & Under 2.56.3%

Away & Over 2.55.2%

Draw & Over 2.55.0%

Away & BTTS5.0%

BTTS & Under 2.54.7%

Away & No BTTS2.4%

Away & Under 2.52.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.584.6%

HT Home Win63.0%

HT/FT Home/Home59.5%

HT Over 1.555.8%

2nd Half More Goals47.9%

HT Under 1.544.2%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Both Teams Score26.4%

HT Draw26.3%

Equal Goals Each Half19.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.9%

HT Under 0.515.4%

HT Away Win10.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.7%

HT/FT Away/Away4.0%

HT/FT Away/Home3.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.7%

HT/FT Home/Away0.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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