Spain · La Liga

Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna

Full time · 1:0

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

68% confidence

Atletico Madrid 67.9% Draw 20.1% Deportivo La Coruna 12.0%

Over 2.5 - 54% BTTS - 58%

✓ Pick was correct (1:0)

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

78%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

68%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-0 at 8%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Atletico Madrid: 16 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Atletico Madrid

D W W W W W

Form 5-1-0 Goals 12:3 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 0.5

Deportivo La Coruna

D L D L D W

Form 1-3-2 Goals 8:9 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Atletico Madrid win67.9%

Draw20.1%

Deportivo La Coruna win12.0%

Over 1.5 goals78.1%

Over 2.5 goals54.3%

Over 3.5 goals31.9%

Both teams to score57.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Away (12)

91.0%

HT Over 0.5

90.6%

Home Over 1.5

89.8%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home96.9%

Home or Draw (1X)93.6%

Home or Away (12)91.0%

Home Win88.2%

Both Halves Over 0.585.6%

Goal in Both Halves85.6%

Draw or Away (X2)8.3%

Draw5.4%

Draw No Bet - Away3.1%

Away Win2.9%

Exactly 1 Goal2.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.0%

Over 1.5 Goals93.2%

Over 2.5 Goals86.0%

Over 3.5 Goals73.4%

4+ Goals73.4%

Under 5.5 Goals60.6%

Over 4.5 Goals56.8%

Total Goals Even48.4%

Total Goals Odd48.1%

Under 4.5 Goals43.2%

Over 5.5 Goals39.4%

2-4 Goals36.4%

3-4 Goals29.2%

Under 3.5 Goals26.6%

1-3 Goals22.6%

2-3 Goals19.8%

Under 2.5 Goals14.0%

Exactly 3 Goals12.6%

1-2 Goals10.0%

Exactly 2 Goals7.2%

Under 1.5 Goals6.8%

Under 0.5 Goals4.0%

Exactly 0 Goals0.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.2%

Away Team to Score56.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)55.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)44.7%

Home Clean Sheet40.4%

Home Win to Nil39.9%

Away Clean Sheet1.2%

Away Win to Nil0.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.2%

Home Over 1.589.8%

Home Over 2.577.8%

Home 3+ Goals77.8%

Away Over 0.556.1%

Away Exactly 040.4%

Away Exactly 135.2%

Away Over 1.520.9%

Away Exactly 215.3%

Home Exactly 212.0%

Away Over 2.55.6%

Away 3+ Goals5.6%

Home Exactly 15.5%

Home Exactly 01.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.5%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)93.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home93.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)88.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)81.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)77.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home77.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)68.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away68.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)62.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home62.3%

Home to win by 3+62.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)51.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away51.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)44.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home44.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)34.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away34.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)28.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home28.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)18.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away18.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw16.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.4%

Home to win by 215.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)15.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home15.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw13.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw10.5%

Home to win by 110.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)8.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away8.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw2.1%

Away to win by 12.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.6%

Away to win by 20.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.2%

Away to win by 3+0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.580.9%

BTTS & Over 2.553.3%

Home & BTTS48.3%

Home & No BTTS39.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.532.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.58.5%

Home & Under 2.57.3%

Draw & BTTS4.9%

Draw & Over 2.52.9%

Draw & Under 2.52.5%

Away & Over 2.52.2%

Away & BTTS2.1%

BTTS & Under 2.52.0%

Away & Under 2.50.7%

Away & No BTTS0.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.6%

HT Home Win75.4%

HT/FT Home/Home73.6%

HT Over 1.568.4%

2nd Half More Goals50.0%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.531.6%

HT Both Teams Score27.9%

HT Draw18.2%

Equal Goals Each Half17.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.6%

HT Under 0.59.4%

HT Away Win6.3%

HT/FT Away/Home3.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw2.6%

HT/FT Away/Away1.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.0%

HT/FT Home/Away0.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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