Spain · La Liga

Atletico Madrid vs Malaga

Kick-off 20:00 · Wed, Aug 19

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

42% confidence

Atletico Madrid 41.8% Draw 27.2% Malaga 31.0%

Over 2.5 - 57% BTTS - 61%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 0.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11.2%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.2%

Exact-score model probability

Atletico Madrid

L W W L L W

Form 3-0-3 Goals 6:8 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.33

Malaga

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📈 Probability Breakdown

Atletico Madrid win41.8%

Draw27.2%

Malaga win31.0%

Over 1.5 goals81.1%

Over 2.5 goals57.0%

Over 3.5 goals34.6%

Both teams to score61.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

91.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

91.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

91.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)75.8%

Home or Draw (1X)67.5%

Both Halves Over 0.559.3%

Goal in Both Halves59.3%

Draw No Bet - Home57.1%

Draw or Away (X2)56.8%

Home Win43.2%

Draw No Bet - Away42.9%

Away Win32.5%

Draw24.2%

Exactly 1 Goal15.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.9%

Under 5.5 Goals91.9%

Under 4.5 Goals82.0%

Over 1.5 Goals79.6%

Under 3.5 Goals65.4%

2-4 Goals61.7%

1-3 Goals60.2%

Over 2.5 Goals57.0%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals45.0%

Under 2.5 Goals43.0%

3-4 Goals39.0%

1-2 Goals37.8%

Over 3.5 Goals34.6%

4+ Goals34.6%

Exactly 2 Goals22.6%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Under 1.5 Goals20.4%

Over 4.5 Goals18.0%

Over 5.5 Goals8.1%

Under 0.5 Goals5.1%

Exactly 0 Goals5.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score79.9%

Away Team to Score74.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)59.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)40.5%

Home Clean Sheet25.6%

Home Win to Nil20.4%

Away Clean Sheet20.0%

Away Win to Nil14.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.579.9%

Away Over 0.574.4%

Home Over 1.547.7%

Away Over 1.539.6%

Away Exactly 134.9%

Home Exactly 132.2%

Home Exactly 225.9%

Away Exactly 025.6%

Away Exactly 223.8%

Home Over 2.521.8%

Home 3+ Goals21.8%

Home Exactly 020.0%

Away Over 2.515.8%

Away 3+ Goals15.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)91.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away91.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)85.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home85.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)78.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away78.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)67.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home67.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)56.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away56.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)43.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)32.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)22.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home22.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.2%

Home to win by 121.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw18.0%

Away to win by 118.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)14.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away14.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.0%

Home to win by 213.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw9.4%

Away to win by 29.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)9.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home9.0%

Home to win by 3+9.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)5.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away5.1%

Away to win by 3+5.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.548.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.531.7%

Home & Over 2.528.4%

Home & BTTS22.8%

Away & Over 2.520.8%

Home & No BTTS20.4%

Draw & BTTS19.1%

Away & BTTS17.6%

Draw & Under 2.516.4%

Home & Under 2.514.9%

Away & No BTTS14.9%

Away & Under 2.511.8%

BTTS & Under 2.511.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.7%

Draw & Over 2.57.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.573.7%

HT Under 1.561.4%

2nd Half More Goals44.5%

HT Draw39.3%

HT Over 1.538.6%

HT Home Win33.7%

1st Half More Goals31.4%

HT Away Win27.0%

HT Under 0.526.3%

HT/FT Home/Home26.2%

Equal Goals Each Half24.1%

HT Both Teams Score23.6%

HT/FT Away/Away19.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw13.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away11.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Away/Home2.7%

HT/FT Home/Away2.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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