UEFA Champions League

Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United

Kick-off 20:00 · Tue, Oct 13

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

59% confidence

Atletico Madrid 59.3% Draw 19.0% Manchester United 21.7%

Over 2.5 - 82% BTTS - 77%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

81%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

77%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 7.6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Atletico Madrid: 12 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.6%

Exact-score model probability

Atletico Madrid

W W W W L L

Form 4-0-2 Goals 12:7 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.17

Manchester United

D D L W D W

Form 2-3-1 Goals 13:7 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Atletico Madrid win59.3%

Draw19.0%

Manchester United win21.7%

Over 1.5 goals94.2%

Over 2.5 goals81.6%

Over 3.5 goals64.3%

Both teams to score76.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

89.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

89.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

88.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)82.3%

Both Halves Over 0.578.7%

Goal in Both Halves78.7%

Home or Draw (1X)77.4%

Draw No Bet - Home72.8%

Home Win59.9%

Draw or Away (X2)39.9%

Draw No Bet - Away27.2%

Away Win22.4%

Draw17.5%

Exactly 1 Goal5.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.6%

Over 1.5 Goals93.2%

Over 2.5 Goals81.5%

Under 5.5 Goals71.9%

Over 3.5 Goals64.1%

4+ Goals64.1%

Under 4.5 Goals55.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

2-4 Goals48.3%

Over 4.5 Goals45.0%

3-4 Goals36.5%

Under 3.5 Goals35.9%

1-3 Goals34.4%

2-3 Goals29.1%

Over 5.5 Goals28.1%

Under 2.5 Goals18.5%

Exactly 3 Goals17.3%

1-2 Goals17.1%

Exactly 2 Goals11.8%

Under 1.5 Goals6.8%

Under 0.5 Goals1.4%

Exactly 0 Goals1.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score93.3%

Away Team to Score81.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)75.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)24.1%

Home Clean Sheet18.6%

Home Win to Nil17.4%

Away Clean Sheet6.5%

Away Win to Nil5.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.593.3%

Away Over 0.581.2%

Home Over 1.575.6%

Home Over 2.551.3%

Home 3+ Goals51.3%

Away Over 1.549.9%

Away Exactly 131.2%

Away Exactly 226.2%

Home Exactly 224.3%

Away Over 2.523.7%

Away 3+ Goals23.7%

Away Exactly 018.6%

Home Exactly 117.7%

Home Exactly 06.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)94.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away94.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)89.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home89.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)88.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away88.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)77.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home77.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)76.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away76.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)59.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)59.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away59.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)40.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home40.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)39.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away39.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)23.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home23.4%

Home to win by 3+23.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)22.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.6%

Home to win by 119.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.9%

Home to win by 216.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw12.0%

Away to win by 112.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)11.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home11.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)10.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away10.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.4%

Away to win by 26.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)5.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home5.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.0%

Away to win by 3+4.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.570.4%

Home & Over 2.552.0%

Home & BTTS42.5%

Away & Over 2.518.7%

Home & No BTTS17.4%

Away & BTTS17.1%

Draw & BTTS16.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.512.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.1%

Draw & Over 2.510.8%

Home & Under 2.57.8%

Draw & Under 2.56.8%

BTTS & Under 2.55.6%

Away & No BTTS5.3%

Away & Under 2.53.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.3%

HT Over 1.559.1%

2nd Half More Goals48.5%

HT Home Win47.5%

HT Under 1.540.9%

HT/FT Home/Home40.2%

HT Both Teams Score37.6%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw29.8%

HT Away Win22.8%

Equal Goals Each Half19.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.1%

HT Under 0.513.7%

HT/FT Away/Away13.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Away/Home4.7%

HT/FT Home/Away2.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions