Spain · La Liga

Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna

Kick-off 18:00 · Wed, Sep 16

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

67% confidence

Atletico Madrid 67.2% Draw 19.8% Osasuna 12.9%

Over 2.5 - 55% BTTS - 70%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

87%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

79%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

70%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Atletico Madrid: 10 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.66 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Atletico Madrid

W L L W D W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 11:8 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.33

Osasuna

L L W W D L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 5:9 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 5

Atletico Madrid 3wins ·0 draws ·Osasuna 2wins

Atletico Madrid 2-1 OsasunaMay 12, 2026

Atletico Madrid 1-0 OsasunaOct 18, 2025

Atletico Madrid 0-2 OsasunaMay 15, 2025

Atletico Madrid 1-0 OsasunaJan 12, 2025

Atletico Madrid 1-4 OsasunaMay 19, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Atletico Madrid win67.2%

Draw19.8%

Osasuna win12.9%

Over 1.5 goals78.6%

Over 2.5 goals55.3%

Over 3.5 goals32.9%

Both teams to score70.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

89.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

86.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

86.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)83.8%

Home or Away (12)82.9%

Draw No Bet - Home80.6%

Both Halves Over 0.572.5%

Goal in Both Halves72.5%

Home Win66.8%

Draw or Away (X2)33.0%

Draw No Bet - Away19.4%

Draw17.0%

Away Win16.0%

Exactly 1 Goal8.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.7%

Over 1.5 Goals89.6%

Under 5.5 Goals80.9%

Over 2.5 Goals73.8%

Under 4.5 Goals65.9%

2-4 Goals55.4%

Over 3.5 Goals53.6%

4+ Goals53.6%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals46.4%

1-3 Goals44.1%

3-4 Goals39.7%

2-3 Goals36.0%

Over 4.5 Goals34.1%

Under 2.5 Goals26.2%

1-2 Goals23.9%

Exactly 3 Goals20.2%

Over 5.5 Goals19.1%

Exactly 2 Goals15.7%

Under 1.5 Goals10.4%

Under 0.5 Goals2.3%

Exactly 0 Goals2.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score92.5%

Away Team to Score70.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)65.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)34.3%

Home Clean Sheet29.0%

Home Win to Nil26.9%

Away Clean Sheet7.3%

Away Win to Nil5.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.592.5%

Home Over 1.573.4%

Away Over 0.570.9%

Home Over 2.548.4%

Home 3+ Goals48.4%

Away Exactly 135.8%

Away Over 1.535.0%

Away Exactly 029.0%

Home Exactly 225.0%

Away Exactly 222.2%

Home Exactly 119.1%

Away Over 2.512.8%

Away 3+ Goals12.8%

Home Exactly 07.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)94.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away94.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)86.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away86.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)83.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home83.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)73.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away73.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)66.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)54.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away54.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)45.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home45.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)33.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away33.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)26.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home26.8%

Home to win by 3+26.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.9%

Home to win by 120.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.0%

Home to win by 219.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)16.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)13.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home13.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw13.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw9.9%

Away to win by 19.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw7.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)6.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away6.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)5.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home5.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.3%

Away to win by 24.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.9%

Away to win by 3+1.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.558.8%

Home & Over 2.554.0%

Home & BTTS39.9%

Home & No BTTS26.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.519.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.515.0%

Draw & BTTS14.9%

Home & Under 2.512.8%

Away & Over 2.511.8%

Away & BTTS10.9%

Draw & Under 2.59.0%

Draw & Over 2.58.0%

BTTS & Under 2.56.9%

Away & No BTTS5.2%

Away & Under 2.54.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.582.3%

HT Over 1.551.7%

HT Home Win51.2%

HT Under 1.548.3%

2nd Half More Goals47.1%

HT/FT Home/Home45.5%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT Draw31.3%

HT Both Teams Score29.5%

Equal Goals Each Half20.8%

HT Under 0.517.7%

HT Away Win17.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.3%

HT/FT Away/Away9.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Away/Home4.2%

HT/FT Home/Away1.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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