Spain · La Liga

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid

Kick-off 15:15 · Sun, Sep 20

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

38% confidence

Atletico Madrid 36.5% Draw 25.5% Real Madrid 38.1%

Over 2.5 - 54% BTTS - 78%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

78%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

78%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Real Madrid: 10 points versus 15 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 5.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Atletico Madrid

W W L L W D

Form 3-1-2 Goals 13:8 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.33

Real Madrid

W W W L W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 17:6 Scored/game 2.83 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 5

Atletico Madrid 1wins ·3 draws ·Real Madrid 1wins

Atletico Madrid 2-3 Real MadridMar 22, 2026

Atletico Madrid 5-2 Real MadridSep 27, 2025

Atletico Madrid 1-1 Real MadridFeb 8, 2025

Atletico Madrid 1-1 Real MadridSep 29, 2024

Atletico Madrid 1-1 Real MadridFeb 4, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Atletico Madrid win36.5%

Draw25.5%

Real Madrid win38.1%

Over 1.5 goals78.0%

Over 2.5 goals54.3%

Over 3.5 goals32.0%

Both teams to score77.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

91.1%

Home Team to Score

89.7%

Home Over 0.5

89.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)79.9%

Both Halves Over 0.574.7%

Goal in Both Halves74.7%

Home or Draw (1X)69.7%

Draw No Bet - Home62.2%

Draw or Away (X2)50.2%

Home Win49.7%

Draw No Bet - Away37.8%

Away Win30.2%

Draw20.0%

Exactly 1 Goal7.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.2%

Over 1.5 Goals91.1%

Under 5.5 Goals77.9%

Over 2.5 Goals76.7%

Under 4.5 Goals62.1%

Over 3.5 Goals57.4%

4+ Goals57.4%

2-4 Goals53.2%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals42.6%

1-3 Goals40.8%

3-4 Goals38.9%

Over 4.5 Goals37.9%

2-3 Goals33.7%

Under 2.5 Goals23.3%

Over 5.5 Goals22.1%

1-2 Goals21.4%

Exactly 3 Goals19.3%

Exactly 2 Goals14.3%

Under 1.5 Goals8.9%

Under 0.5 Goals1.8%

Exactly 0 Goals1.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score89.7%

Away Team to Score82.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)74.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)25.7%

Home Clean Sheet17.1%

Home Win to Nil15.4%

Away Clean Sheet10.2%

Away Win to Nil8.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.589.7%

Away Over 0.582.8%

Home Over 1.566.4%

Away Over 1.552.6%

Home Over 2.539.8%

Home 3+ Goals39.8%

Away Exactly 130.2%

Home Exactly 226.6%

Away Exactly 226.6%

Away Over 2.526.0%

Away 3+ Goals26.0%

Home Exactly 123.3%

Away Exactly 017.1%

Home Exactly 010.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)93.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home93.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)93.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away93.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)84.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home84.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)84.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away84.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)69.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away69.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)69.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home69.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)50.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away50.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)49.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)30.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)30.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home30.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.6%

Home to win by 119.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)15.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home15.4%

Home to win by 3+15.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.2%

Away to win by 115.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)15.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away15.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.7%

Home to win by 214.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.8%

Away to win by 28.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)6.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home6.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)6.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away6.2%

Away to win by 3+6.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.567.3%

Home & Over 2.541.2%

Home & BTTS34.4%

Away & Over 2.524.4%

Away & BTTS21.7%

Draw & BTTS18.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.516.1%

Home & No BTTS15.4%

Draw & Over 2.511.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.5%

Draw & Under 2.58.8%

Home & Under 2.58.6%

Away & No BTTS8.5%

BTTS & Under 2.57.1%

Away & Under 2.55.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.583.8%

HT Over 1.554.3%

2nd Half More Goals47.6%

HT Under 1.545.7%

HT Home Win40.1%

HT Both Teams Score35.1%

HT Draw32.4%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT/FT Home/Home31.9%

HT Away Win27.5%

Equal Goals Each Half20.2%

HT/FT Away/Away18.1%

HT Under 0.516.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Away/Home4.1%

HT/FT Home/Away2.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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