Spain · La Liga

Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal

Kick-off 16:00 · Sun, Aug 23

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

53% confidence

Atletico Madrid 53.4% Draw 21.6% Villarreal 25.0%

Over 2.5 - 63% BTTS - 72%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

84%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

78%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 8.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Atletico Madrid: 9 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.7%

Exact-score model probability

Atletico Madrid

W L W W L L

Form 3-0-3 Goals 6:8 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.33

Villarreal

D W L L D W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 15:10 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 5

Atletico Madrid 2wins ·2 draws ·Villarreal 1wins

Atletico Madrid 1-5 VillarrealMay 24, 2026

Atletico Madrid 2-0 VillarrealSep 13, 2025

Atletico Madrid 1-1 VillarrealJan 25, 2025

Atletico Madrid 2-2 VillarrealAug 19, 2024

Atletico Madrid 2-1 VillarrealApr 1, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Atletico Madrid win53.4%

Draw21.6%

Villarreal win25.0%

Over 1.5 goals83.5%

Over 2.5 goals63.2%

Over 3.5 goals41.0%

Both teams to score71.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

88.2%

Home Team to Score

87.3%

Home Over 0.5

87.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)78.8%

Both Halves Over 0.570.3%

Goal in Both Halves70.3%

Home or Draw (1X)69.3%

Draw No Bet - Home61.1%

Draw or Away (X2)51.8%

Home Win48.2%

Draw No Bet - Away38.9%

Away Win30.6%

Draw21.2%

Exactly 1 Goal9.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.5%

Over 1.5 Goals88.2%

Under 5.5 Goals83.2%

Over 2.5 Goals71.2%

Under 4.5 Goals69.0%

2-4 Goals57.2%

Over 3.5 Goals50.3%

4+ Goals50.3%

Total Goals Odd50.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Under 3.5 Goals49.7%

1-3 Goals47.2%

3-4 Goals40.2%

2-3 Goals37.9%

Over 4.5 Goals31.0%

Under 2.5 Goals28.8%

1-2 Goals26.2%

Exactly 3 Goals20.9%

Exactly 2 Goals17.0%

Over 5.5 Goals16.8%

Under 1.5 Goals11.8%

Under 0.5 Goals2.5%

Exactly 0 Goals2.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score87.3%

Away Team to Score80.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)70.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)29.9%

Home Clean Sheet19.7%

Home Win to Nil17.2%

Away Clean Sheet12.7%

Away Win to Nil10.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.587.3%

Away Over 0.580.2%

Home Over 1.561.1%

Away Over 1.548.2%

Home Over 2.534.1%

Home 3+ Goals34.1%

Away Exactly 132.0%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 126.2%

Away Exactly 226.0%

Away Over 2.522.2%

Away 3+ Goals22.2%

Away Exactly 019.7%

Home Exactly 012.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)94.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away94.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)86.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away86.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)85.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home85.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)72.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away72.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)69.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home69.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)51.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away51.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)48.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)30.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)27.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home27.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.3%

Home to win by 120.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.9%

Away to win by 115.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)14.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away14.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.4%

Home to win by 214.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)13.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home13.5%

Home to win by 3+13.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.9%

Away to win by 28.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)5.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away5.8%

Away to win by 3+5.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)5.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home5.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.561.7%

Home & Over 2.537.7%

Home & BTTS31.0%

Away & Over 2.523.3%

Away & BTTS20.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.520.4%

Draw & BTTS18.7%

Home & No BTTS17.2%

Draw & Under 2.510.9%

Home & Under 2.510.5%

Draw & Over 2.510.3%

Away & No BTTS10.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.5%

BTTS & Under 2.58.4%

Away & Under 2.57.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.581.0%

HT Under 1.550.6%

HT Over 1.549.4%

2nd Half More Goals46.7%

HT Home Win38.5%

HT Draw34.3%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT Both Teams Score31.4%

HT/FT Home/Home30.4%

HT Away Win27.3%

Equal Goals Each Half21.3%

HT Under 0.519.0%

HT/FT Away/Away18.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Away/Home3.7%

HT/FT Home/Away2.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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