Brazil · Serie A

Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc

Kick-off 20:00 · Sat, Sep 19

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

90% confidence

Atletico-MG 90.3% Draw 6.5% Chapecoense-sc 3.2%

Over 2.5 - 91% BTTS - 63%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

91%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

90%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 7%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Atletico-MG: 11 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Atletico-MG

W D W D L W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 11:6 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1

Chapecoense-sc

L W L W D L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 9:11 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

Atletico-MG win90.3%

Draw6.5%

Chapecoense-sc win3.2%

Over 1.5 goals97.5%

Over 2.5 goals90.8%

Over 3.5 goals79.0%

Both teams to score62.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

91.6%

Home or Away (12)

90.2%

Home Over 1.5

89.9%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home96.3%

Home or Draw (1X)92.6%

Home or Away (12)90.2%

Both Halves Over 0.587.2%

Goal in Both Halves87.2%

Home Win86.9%

Draw or Away (X2)9.1%

Draw5.7%

Draw No Bet - Away3.7%

Away Win3.4%

Exactly 1 Goal2.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.6%

Over 1.5 Goals93.3%

Over 2.5 Goals87.2%

Over 3.5 Goals75.9%

4+ Goals75.9%

Over 4.5 Goals60.3%

Under 5.5 Goals56.8%

Total Goals Even48.1%

Total Goals Odd47.9%

Over 5.5 Goals43.2%

Under 4.5 Goals39.7%

2-4 Goals33.0%

3-4 Goals26.9%

Under 3.5 Goals24.1%

1-3 Goals19.7%

2-3 Goals17.5%

Under 2.5 Goals12.8%

Exactly 3 Goals11.3%

1-2 Goals8.4%

Under 1.5 Goals6.7%

Exactly 2 Goals6.2%

Under 0.5 Goals4.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

Away Team to Score60.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)60.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)39.9%

Home Clean Sheet35.1%

Home Win to Nil34.7%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 0.560.8%

Away Exactly 135.3%

Away Exactly 035.1%

Away Over 1.525.5%

Away Exactly 217.7%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Away Over 2.57.8%

Away 3+ Goals7.8%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)92.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home92.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)86.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)81.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)76.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home76.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)68.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away68.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)61.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home61.2%

Home to win by 3+61.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)52.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away52.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)43.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home43.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)34.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away34.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)27.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home27.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)19.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away19.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw16.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.1%

Home to win by 215.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)15.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home15.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw12.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw10.6%

Home to win by 110.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)9.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away9.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw2.4%

Away to win by 12.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.8%

Away to win by 20.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.2%

Away to win by 3+0.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.580.9%

BTTS & Over 2.558.3%

Home & BTTS52.2%

Home & No BTTS34.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.528.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.57.0%

Home & Under 2.55.9%

Draw & BTTS5.3%

Draw & Over 2.53.5%

Away & Over 2.52.7%

Away & BTTS2.7%

Draw & Under 2.52.2%

BTTS & Under 2.51.8%

Away & No BTTS0.7%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.6%

HT Home Win74.8%

HT/FT Home/Home72.7%

HT Over 1.570.8%

2nd Half More Goals50.5%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Both Teams Score31.6%

HT Under 1.529.2%

HT Draw18.0%

Equal Goals Each Half17.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.3%

HT Under 0.58.4%

HT Away Win7.2%

HT/FT Away/Home3.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw2.5%

HT/FT Away/Away1.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.1%

HT/FT Home/Away0.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions