Brazil · Serie A

Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro

Kick-off 23:30 · Thu, Oct 29

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

78% confidence

Atletico-MG 78.1% Draw 11.1% Cruzeiro 10.8%

Over 2.5 - 94% BTTS - 83%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

89%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

83%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 5.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Cruzeiro: 11 points versus 12 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.7%

Exact-score model probability

Atletico-MG

W D W D L W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 11:6 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1

Cruzeiro

W W L W W L

Form 4-0-2 Goals 13:9 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 1

Atletico-MG 1wins ·0 draws ·Cruzeiro 0wins

Atletico-MG 3-1 CruzeiroMay 3, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Atletico-MG win78.1%

Draw11.1%

Cruzeiro win10.8%

Over 1.5 goals98.6%

Over 2.5 goals94.0%

Over 3.5 goals85.3%

Both teams to score82.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 2.5 Goals

91.1%

Both Halves Over 0.5

90.3%

Goal in Both Halves

90.3%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.590.3%

Goal in Both Halves90.3%

Draw No Bet - Home87.6%

Home or Away (12)86.6%

Home or Draw (1X)86.1%

Home Win75.9%

Draw or Away (X2)21.0%

Draw No Bet - Away12.4%

Away Win10.7%

Draw10.3%

Exactly 1 Goal1.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.7%

Over 1.5 Goals95.3%

Over 2.5 Goals91.1%

Over 3.5 Goals82.6%

4+ Goals82.6%

Over 4.5 Goals69.7%

Over 5.5 Goals53.9%

Total Goals Even48.5%

Total Goals Odd48.4%

Under 5.5 Goals46.1%

Under 4.5 Goals30.3%

2-4 Goals25.6%

3-4 Goals21.4%

Under 3.5 Goals17.4%

1-3 Goals14.0%

2-3 Goals12.7%

Under 2.5 Goals8.9%

Exactly 3 Goals8.5%

1-2 Goals5.5%

Under 1.5 Goals4.7%

Exactly 2 Goals4.2%

Under 0.5 Goals3.3%

Exactly 0 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.5%

Away Team to Score81.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)79.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)20.1%

Home Clean Sheet15.8%

Home Win to Nil15.6%

Away Clean Sheet1.4%

Away Win to Nil1.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.5%

Home Over 1.589.6%

Away Over 0.581.1%

Home Over 2.576.9%

Home 3+ Goals76.9%

Away Over 1.552.5%

Away Exactly 128.6%

Away Over 2.526.5%

Away 3+ Goals26.5%

Away Exactly 226.0%

Away Exactly 015.8%

Home Exactly 212.7%

Home Exactly 15.9%

Home Exactly 01.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)88.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)86.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home86.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)80.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away80.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)75.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)67.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away67.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)61.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home61.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)51.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away51.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)45.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home45.2%

Home to win by 3+45.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)35.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away35.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)29.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home29.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)21.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away21.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)16.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home16.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.4%

Home to win by 216.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.3%

Home to win by 114.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw12.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)10.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)8.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home8.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.1%

Away to win by 16.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)4.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away4.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.9%

Away to win by 22.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.8%

Away to win by 3+1.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.578.2%

Home & Over 2.572.8%

Home & BTTS60.3%

Home & No BTTS15.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.9%

Draw & BTTS10.1%

Away & Over 2.510.0%

Away & BTTS9.6%

Draw & Over 2.58.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.54.0%

Home & Under 2.53.0%

Draw & Under 2.52.0%

BTTS & Under 2.51.7%

Away & No BTTS1.2%

Away & Under 2.50.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.593.6%

HT Over 1.575.9%

HT Home Win63.5%

HT/FT Home/Home58.7%

2nd Half More Goals51.5%

HT Both Teams Score47.7%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.524.1%

HT Draw21.3%

Equal Goals Each Half16.1%

HT Away Win15.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.4%

HT Under 0.56.4%

HT/FT Away/Away6.2%

HT/FT Away/Home5.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.1%

HT/FT Home/Away1.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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