Brazil · Serie A

Atletico-MG vs Fluminense

Kick-off 20:00 · Sat, Sep 12

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

74% confidence

Atletico-MG 73.9% Draw 15.9% Fluminense 10.2%

Over 2.5 - 75% BTTS - 63%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

90%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 8.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Fluminense: 11 points versus 12 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.5%

Exact-score model probability

Atletico-MG

W D W D L W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 11:6 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1

Fluminense

W D W W D D

Form 3-3-0 Goals 10:7 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Atletico-MG win73.9%

Draw15.9%

Fluminense win10.2%

Over 1.5 goals91.1%

Over 2.5 goals75.2%

Over 3.5 goals55.4%

Both teams to score62.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

91.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

91.0%

Over 1.5 Goals

90.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)88.7%

Draw No Bet - Home87.1%

Home or Away (12)85.4%

Home Win74.4%

Both Halves Over 0.573.5%

Goal in Both Halves73.5%

Draw or Away (X2)25.3%

Draw14.3%

Draw No Bet - Away12.9%

Away Win11.0%

Exactly 1 Goal7.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.8%

Over 1.5 Goals90.1%

Under 5.5 Goals79.7%

Over 2.5 Goals75.0%

Under 4.5 Goals64.3%

Over 3.5 Goals55.2%

4+ Goals55.2%

2-4 Goals54.4%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 3.5 Goals44.8%

1-3 Goals42.6%

3-4 Goals39.3%

Over 4.5 Goals35.7%

2-3 Goals34.9%

Under 2.5 Goals25.0%

1-2 Goals22.7%

Over 5.5 Goals20.3%

Exactly 3 Goals19.8%

Exactly 2 Goals15.1%

Under 1.5 Goals9.9%

Under 0.5 Goals2.2%

Exactly 0 Goals1.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.1%

Away Team to Score65.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)61.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)38.5%

Home Clean Sheet34.5%

Home Win to Nil32.6%

Away Clean Sheet5.6%

Away Win to Nil3.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.1%

Home Over 1.577.9%

Away Over 0.565.2%

Home Over 2.554.7%

Home 3+ Goals54.7%

Away Exactly 136.6%

Away Exactly 034.5%

Away Over 1.528.5%

Home Exactly 223.3%

Away Exactly 219.4%

Home Exactly 116.2%

Away Over 2.59.1%

Away 3+ Goals9.1%

Home Exactly 05.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home96.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)91.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away91.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)88.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home88.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)81.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away81.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)74.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)65.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away65.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)54.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home54.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)45.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away45.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)34.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home34.5%

Home to win by 3+34.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)25.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away25.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw20.1%

Home to win by 220.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.8%

Home to win by 119.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)18.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home18.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)11.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw10.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)8.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home8.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw7.3%

Away to win by 17.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw5.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)3.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home3.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.7%

Away to win by 22.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.0%

Away to win by 3+1.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.560.8%

BTTS & Over 2.555.6%

Home & BTTS41.8%

Home & No BTTS32.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.519.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.518.8%

Home & Under 2.513.7%

Draw & BTTS12.3%

Draw & Under 2.57.9%

Away & Over 2.57.9%

Away & BTTS7.4%

Draw & Over 2.56.4%

BTTS & Under 2.55.9%

Away & No BTTS3.7%

Away & Under 2.53.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.583.0%

HT Home Win57.2%

HT Over 1.552.9%

HT/FT Home/Home52.6%

2nd Half More Goals47.4%

HT Under 1.547.1%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT Draw29.2%

HT Both Teams Score27.6%

Equal Goals Each Half20.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.1%

HT Under 0.517.0%

HT Away Win13.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.2%

HT/FT Away/Away6.1%

HT/FT Away/Home4.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.5%

HT/FT Home/Away1.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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