Brazil · Serie A

Atletico-MG vs Gremio

Kick-off 20:00 · Sun, Aug 16

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

62% confidence

Atletico-MG 62.2% Draw 23.0% Gremio 14.8%

Over 2.5 - 57% BTTS - 54%

🎯 Best Pick

Home Win

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ AIs disagree

59%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 10.8%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Atletico-MG: 9 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.8%

Exact-score model probability

Atletico-MG

D W D L W D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 9:7 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.17

Gremio

W D L W D L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 8:8 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

Atletico-MG win62.2%

Draw23.0%

Gremio win14.8%

Over 1.5 goals80.9%

Over 2.5 goals57.1%

Over 3.5 goals34.7%

Both teams to score53.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

91.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

91.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

91.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)83.9%

Draw No Bet - Home79.8%

Home or Away (12)79.5%

Home Win63.5%

Both Halves Over 0.559.4%

Goal in Both Halves59.4%

Draw or Away (X2)36.5%

Draw20.4%

Draw No Bet - Away20.2%

Away Win16.1%

Exactly 1 Goal15.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.9%

Under 5.5 Goals91.9%

Under 4.5 Goals82.0%

Over 1.5 Goals79.6%

Under 3.5 Goals65.4%

2-4 Goals61.7%

1-3 Goals60.2%

Over 2.5 Goals57.0%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals45.0%

Under 2.5 Goals43.0%

3-4 Goals39.1%

1-2 Goals37.8%

Over 3.5 Goals34.6%

4+ Goals34.6%

Exactly 2 Goals22.6%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Under 1.5 Goals20.4%

Over 4.5 Goals18.0%

Over 5.5 Goals8.1%

Under 0.5 Goals5.1%

Exactly 0 Goals5.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score87.1%

Away Team to Score60.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)52.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)47.5%

Home Clean Sheet39.8%

Home Win to Nil34.6%

Away Clean Sheet12.9%

Away Win to Nil7.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.587.1%

Home Over 1.560.7%

Away Over 0.560.2%

Away Exactly 039.8%

Away Exactly 136.7%

Home Over 2.533.7%

Home 3+ Goals33.7%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 126.4%

Away Over 1.523.6%

Away Exactly 216.9%

Home Exactly 012.9%

Away Over 2.56.7%

Away 3+ Goals6.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)91.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away91.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)83.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home83.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)79.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away79.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)63.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)60.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away60.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)39.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home39.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)36.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away36.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw24.1%

Home to win by 124.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)20.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home20.0%

Home to win by 3+20.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.4%

Home to win by 219.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)16.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw10.8%

Away to win by 110.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)8.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home8.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.9%

Away to win by 23.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.3%

Away to win by 3+1.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.542.8%

Home & Over 2.542.2%

Home & No BTTS34.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.533.3%

Home & BTTS28.8%

Home & Under 2.521.2%

Draw & BTTS15.3%

Draw & Under 2.514.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.514.3%

BTTS & Under 2.59.7%

Away & Over 2.59.2%

Away & BTTS8.3%

Away & No BTTS7.7%

Away & Under 2.56.9%

Draw & Over 2.55.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.573.8%

HT Under 1.561.3%

HT Home Win46.7%

2nd Half More Goals44.5%

HT/FT Home/Home41.3%

HT Over 1.538.7%

HT Draw37.3%

1st Half More Goals31.4%

HT Under 0.526.2%

Equal Goals Each Half24.1%

HT Both Teams Score20.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home19.1%

HT Away Win16.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw12.1%

HT/FT Away/Away8.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Away/Home3.1%

HT/FT Home/Away1.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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