Brazil · Serie A

Atletico-MG vs RB Bragantino

Kick-off 22:30 · Sat, Oct 3

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

71% confidence

Atletico-MG 70.6% Draw 17.7% RB Bragantino 11.7%

Over 2.5 - 71% BTTS - 61%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

88%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

71%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Atletico-MG: 11 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.1%

Exact-score model probability

Atletico-MG

W D W D L W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 11:6 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1

RB Bragantino

L D L L W D

Form 1-2-3 Goals 7:9 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Atletico-MG win70.6%

Draw17.7%

RB Bragantino win11.7%

Over 1.5 goals89.1%

Over 2.5 goals71.2%

Over 3.5 goals50.2%

Both teams to score61.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

88.1%

Home or Draw (1X)

87.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

87.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)87.3%

Draw No Bet - Home85.0%

Home or Away (12)83.9%

Home Win71.4%

Both Halves Over 0.570.3%

Goal in Both Halves70.3%

Draw or Away (X2)28.4%

Draw15.9%

Draw No Bet - Away15.0%

Away Win12.6%

Exactly 1 Goal9.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.3%

Over 1.5 Goals88.1%

Under 5.5 Goals83.4%

Over 2.5 Goals71.0%

Under 4.5 Goals69.2%

2-4 Goals57.3%

Over 3.5 Goals50.1%

4+ Goals50.1%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Under 3.5 Goals49.9%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

1-3 Goals47.2%

3-4 Goals40.2%

2-3 Goals38.0%

Over 4.5 Goals30.8%

Under 2.5 Goals29.0%

1-2 Goals26.3%

Exactly 3 Goals20.9%

Exactly 2 Goals17.0%

Over 5.5 Goals16.6%

Under 1.5 Goals11.9%

Under 0.5 Goals2.7%

Exactly 0 Goals2.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score92.7%

Away Team to Score64.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)60.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)40.0%

Home Clean Sheet35.3%

Home Win to Nil32.8%

Away Clean Sheet7.1%

Away Win to Nil4.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.592.7%

Home Over 1.574.0%

Away Over 0.564.5%

Home Over 2.549.1%

Home 3+ Goals49.1%

Away Exactly 136.7%

Away Exactly 035.3%

Away Over 1.527.8%

Home Exactly 224.8%

Away Exactly 219.1%

Home Exactly 118.8%

Away Over 2.58.8%

Away 3+ Goals8.8%

Home Exactly 07.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)93.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away93.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)87.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home87.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)84.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away84.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)71.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)69.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away69.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)50.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home50.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)49.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away49.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)30.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home30.2%

Home to win by 3+30.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)28.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away28.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.1%

Home to win by 121.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw20.2%

Home to win by 220.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)15.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home15.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)12.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw8.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw8.3%

Away to win by 18.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)6.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home6.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)4.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away4.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.1%

Away to win by 23.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.2%

Away to win by 3+1.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.556.0%

BTTS & Over 2.553.1%

Home & BTTS38.6%

Home & No BTTS32.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.521.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.518.0%

Home & Under 2.515.4%

Draw & BTTS13.4%

Draw & Under 2.59.4%

Away & Over 2.58.6%

Away & BTTS8.0%

BTTS & Under 2.56.9%

Draw & Over 2.56.5%

Away & No BTTS4.6%

Away & Under 2.54.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.581.0%

HT Home Win54.2%

HT Under 1.550.6%

HT Over 1.549.4%

HT/FT Home/Home49.3%

2nd Half More Goals46.7%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT Draw31.2%

HT Both Teams Score26.0%

Equal Goals Each Half21.3%

HT Under 0.519.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.4%

HT Away Win14.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.3%

HT/FT Away/Away6.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.5%

HT/FT Away/Home3.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Home/Away1.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions