Brazil · Serie A

Atletico-MG vs Santos

Kick-off 20:00 · Sun, Oct 11

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

47% confidence

Atletico-MG 47.0% Draw 22.7% Santos 30.3%

Over 2.5 - 74% BTTS - 73%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

77%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

73%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 8.3%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Santos: 11 points versus 16 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.3%

Exact-score model probability

Atletico-MG

W D W D L W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 11:6 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1

Santos

D W W W W W

Form 5-1-0 Goals 12:7 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Atletico-MG win47.0%

Draw22.7%

Santos win30.3%

Over 1.5 goals90.7%

Over 2.5 goals73.9%

Over 3.5 goals53.6%

Both teams to score73.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

89.6%

Home Team to Score

88.2%

Home Over 0.5

88.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)79.2%

Both Halves Over 0.572.4%

Goal in Both Halves72.4%

Home or Draw (1X)68.7%

Draw No Bet - Home60.5%

Draw or Away (X2)52.0%

Home Win48.0%

Draw No Bet - Away39.5%

Away Win31.3%

Draw20.7%

Exactly 1 Goal8.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.8%

Over 1.5 Goals89.6%

Under 5.5 Goals80.9%

Over 2.5 Goals73.8%

Under 4.5 Goals65.9%

2-4 Goals55.5%

Over 3.5 Goals53.6%

4+ Goals53.6%

Total Goals Odd50.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Under 3.5 Goals46.4%

1-3 Goals44.2%

3-4 Goals39.7%

2-3 Goals36.0%

Over 4.5 Goals34.1%

Under 2.5 Goals26.2%

1-2 Goals24.0%

Exactly 3 Goals20.2%

Over 5.5 Goals19.1%

Exactly 2 Goals15.8%

Under 1.5 Goals10.4%

Under 0.5 Goals2.2%

Exactly 0 Goals2.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score88.2%

Away Team to Score81.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)72.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)27.8%

Home Clean Sheet18.1%

Home Win to Nil15.9%

Away Clean Sheet11.8%

Away Win to Nil9.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.588.2%

Away Over 0.581.9%

Home Over 1.563.0%

Away Over 1.551.0%

Home Over 2.536.0%

Home 3+ Goals36.0%

Away Exactly 130.9%

Home Exactly 226.9%

Away Exactly 226.4%

Home Exactly 125.2%

Away Over 2.524.5%

Away 3+ Goals24.5%

Away Exactly 018.1%

Home Exactly 011.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)94.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away94.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)93.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home93.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)86.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away86.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)84.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home84.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)71.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away71.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)68.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home68.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)52.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away52.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)48.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)31.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)28.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home28.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.8%

Home to win by 119.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.9%

Away to win by 115.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)15.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away15.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.3%

Home to win by 214.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)13.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home13.8%

Home to win by 3+13.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw9.1%

Away to win by 29.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)6.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away6.3%

Away to win by 3+6.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)5.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home5.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.564.4%

Home & Over 2.538.5%

Home & BTTS32.0%

Away & Over 2.524.5%

Away & BTTS21.6%

Draw & BTTS18.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.518.3%

Home & No BTTS15.9%

Draw & Over 2.510.8%

Draw & Under 2.59.9%

Away & No BTTS9.6%

Home & Under 2.59.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.4%

BTTS & Under 2.57.8%

Away & Under 2.56.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.582.3%

HT Over 1.551.7%

HT Under 1.548.3%

2nd Half More Goals47.1%

HT Home Win38.6%

HT Draw33.4%

HT Both Teams Score33.2%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT/FT Home/Home30.4%

HT Away Win27.9%

Equal Goals Each Half20.8%

HT/FT Away/Away18.7%

HT Under 0.517.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Away/Home3.8%

HT/FT Home/Away2.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions